Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Aaron Gryder Says:

A field of 20 is set for Kentucky Derby 137, and it looks absolutely wide open. Dialed In has been made the morning line favorite. He is a closer and will benefit from what looks to be a fairly solid pace. He has won three of four races and in his one second place finish, he only lost by 1/2 a length closing into a very slow pace. Dialed In will certainly be one for the exotics even if he misses for the top prize. We expect Comma to the Top, second in the Santa Anita Derby and the speedy longshot Decisive Moment to set the pace. Shackleford should be right there on the pace as well - he carried his speed very well to almost cause a huge upset in the Florida Derby losing to winner Dialed In by just a head. Shackleford is drawn in post 14 and is not the best post for a forwardly placed horse. Look for Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Uncle Mo, Midnight Interlude, Pants on Fire, and Soldat, all to be stalking the pace. Mucho Macho man and Santiva ran one-two in the G2 Risen Star, but the former came back and lost as the favorite in the G2 Louisiana Derby to Pants on Fire, and finished behind Nehro who got up for second. However, Mucho Macho Man held on well for third, only 3/4 lengths behind the winner. Bob Baffert sends the talented Midnight Interlude, winner of the Santa Anita Derby to post, and he is drilling outstanding at Churchill downs. Midnight Interlude never started as a two year old, and if he wins, he will be the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without having raced as a two year old. Soldat should be somewhere near the pace, and hopes to redeem himself off a disappointing Florida Derby where he was stuck down on the rail, bottled up. He might have more running room breaking form post 17 this time, though he will likely be forced wide and lose ground. Still, he was the impressive winner of the G2 Fountain of Youth two races back. Nehro breaks from post 19 but since he is a deep closer that may work to his advantage if he can move over the rail and save ground around the first turn. Nehro has come on strong in his last two races, including a neck loss to Archarcharch in the G1 Arkansas Derby - he looks like he wants the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby and also seems to be improving. Archarcharch earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the aforementioned Arkansas Derby but draws the rail position, though if he can avoid traffic and save ground, it might work to his advantage. Brilliant Speed and Twinspired are the top two finishers coming out of the G1 Blue Grass, but that was run over a synthetic surface, much different that what they will see at Churchill Downs. It is hard to say how they will adapt to natural dirt. Master of Hounds is an X factor, having raced only on synthetic and turf mostly overseas. His European form numbers suggest he is just as talented as many in this group and when he finished second by a nose in the G2 UAE Derby at 1-3/16 miles, he showed he can go the long distances. If he adapts well to natural dirt, he could cause an upset. Derby Kitten just mowed down his competition in the G3 Lexington over the synthetic polytrack at Keeneland, and he has never raced on regular dirt either - he is a huge long shot, but he did look rather impressive and just might surprise a few people. Animal Kingdom is yet another who has only run on synthetic and turf, but he has finished first or second in all four starts, always there right at the finish. His last win was the G3 Spiral. Twice the Appeal won the G3 Sunland Derby last time and is ridden by Calvin Borel who is hoping for his unprecedented third straight Kentucky Derby. Stay Thirsty won the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct by 3 1/4 lengths, but was never a factor in the Florida Derby. Watch Me Go draws post 20, but really looks outclassed here. He did win the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, but faltered badly in the Illinois Derby next time out.