Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Aaron Gryder Says:

Nick Zitos Ice Box is the 3-1 morning line favorite for this Saturday\'s $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes, but his come-from-the-clouds style might not be well-suited to the 1 1/2-mile race, as most horses win this race sitting not too far off of the pace. The runner up in the Kentucky Derby, along with First Dude are the only two horses to have received Beyer figures over 100 or better in this field.

A few of the other top choices - Fly Down, Stately Victor, Make Music for Me and Stay Put - also come from off-the-pace so they will have to alter their running style to suit the distance as well or be caught 10 lengths behind the pacesetters through slow internal fractions. Stately Victor is one to watch; he ran a great race in the Blue Grass and ran respectably in the Kentucky Derby - it was an off track that day, so one should not look too much into the 8th place performance in that race. Fly Down won the Dwyer at Belmont Park most recently which bodes well for him as the Belmont Stakes is run over the same strip. He ran an outstanding final 1/8 of a mile and looks like he can get the distance. Make Music for Me did finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby but we dont know how much the off going helped him that day.

Two horses that should be close to the pace, if not first and second, are First Dude and Game On Dude. The last time the two dudes met they finished out of the money in the Florida Derby. The former ran fifth while the latter ended up seventh. Game on Dude most recently won the Lone Star Derby by 4 1/2 lengths but came home his final 1/16 of a mile pretty slow. Distance might be a problem for him.

Interactif ran very good second behind Sidneys Candy in the San Felipe, but that was on synthetic track. If he happens to take to dirt, watch out, he could pull the upset. Dave in Dixie finished up the track in the Illinois Derby most recently and will have his work cut out for him. Drosselmeyer was easily beaten by Fly Down in the Dwyer but did have some trouble around the three-eighths pole so he might have a bit of an excuse for losing to Fly Down by 6 lengths.

Stay Put won an allowance race but has finished out of the money in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby and looks outclassed. Spangled Star finished third in the Withers which was at a mile, and he was losing ground at the end. On the other hand he has perhaps one of the best set of connections in Garret Gomez and Richard Dutrow in his corner. Uptowncharlybrown finished third most recently in the Lexington Stakes and his speed figures are a little light.