California Chrome – 2014 Kentucky Derby Favorite & The Real Deal?

California Chrome – 2014 Kentucky Derby Favorite & The Real Deal?

Just a few weeks ago, the racing experts, and fans alike, were once again saying there was no clear favorite for the Run for the Roses. But, everything changed last weekend when California Chrome won his fourth race under a modest ride by Victor Espinoza. Those 4 impressive victories were won with a combined 24-length lead when crossing the wire.

The Santa Anita Derby is one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome cruised home to victory in the Santa Anita Derby by over 5 lengths. More importantly than the length of the victory was the fact that jockey Victor Espinoza noticeably began to wrap up the 3-year-old colt late in the race, clearly conserving what appeared to be a lot of extra horse being held in reserve for next month’s Kentucky Derby. When you look at California Chrome’s progression in his last 4 starts, both visually and on paper, you have to believe that further racing talent will soon be displayed as this colt continues to mature.

Do you think California Chrome has what it takes to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, or is he another West Coaster that will fall flat making the trip east to Kentucky?

If you think California Chrome has what it takes, help me build the case for him. Or, if you think California Chrome cannot get it done, please make the case against him and tell me what Thoroughbred you think will win the 2014 Kentucky Derby next month.



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derbygirl14's picture

California Chrome

It's too early too tell but he certainly looked the part in the Santa Anita Derby. Hoppertunity and Candy Boy are nice colts in their on right and he just blew them out of the water. I'll admit i wasn't sure about him before but i'm certainly liking him a lot better now. The only concern i really have now is whether or not he can come from off the pace. The Kentucky Derby is coming up loaded with speed this year, and any horse to close to the front will probably get run into the ground. But if he can learn to lay off the pace and doesn't bounce after his impressive Santa Anita derby romp, i don't see anybody that can beat him. It's his race too win or lose for the most part. No other 3 year old in the country has ran as spectacular a race as he just did. We still have a couple up coming prep races like the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby, but for now he is the 1 to beat. I truely hope he is a super horse. Racing has been too long without a Triple Crown winner, and i would love too see it happen this year. Hopefully he can be the 1 to end the drought. Fingers crossed, hoping and praying.

soundofrum's picture

Another West Coaster???

<<< Do you think California Chrome has what it takes to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, or is he another West Coaster that will fall flat making the trip east to Kentucky? >>>

I've been saying that ,California Chrome is the best 3 year old racing in America today for more than one month now. Read my thread, Derby Fever. Good to keep in touch by reading all forum threads and particpating. JMHO

As far as falling flat, a horse could do that no matter what area he/she's from. The favorites seldom win the Kentucky Derby. And they come from all over. Not just the West Coast. Do I think , California Chrome will win? You bet. If he stays healthy, there's nobody that could touch him at this time. JMHO

emerson17's picture

California Chrome

This horse may well be the real deal, here is why!
Very correct linebreeding to Mr Prospector 4x3 through a female on the male side and a male on the female side of his pedigree: This line breeding method provides speed and vigour: Also there is the crossing of Sir Ivor (champion English 2yo of year) and great source of stamina through grand dam Chase it Down and Nashua (Champion American 2yo of year) through Mr Prospector's dam Gold Digger and also a source of stamina in Pedigree: Both these sires (when crossed on each side of a pedigree) have not only consistently passed on soundness to descendants but also the cross has resulted in the highest class offspring: Viz Lohnro, Sea the Stars and hundreds of other high class descendants all over the racing world. The distance in remove does not seem to water down the cross's beneficial outcomes either. Another positive is the absence of close inbreeding to male descendants of Northern Dancer..which along with the use of Lasix is a major contributer to unsoundness and breakdown of the modern American thoroughbred.In fact Northern Dancer only appears once in the first four removes of California Chrome's pedigree very rare.. almost a 5 generation outcross: But here is the real gem in this pedigree: Dam Love the Chase is perfectly line bred to 3/4 brother and sister Polish Number and Dance Number through her sire and dam...Speed, stamina and durability are all traits that can be expected as a result of this method of line breeding: By my analysis then the horse will have no problems getting the classic distance, will have no problems getting 12f and has no visable weaknesses in his pedigree to suggest he cannot stay 100% sound...He is unbeaten this campaign....If he does not get lasixed we may very well be looking at the next triple crown winner. Good luck to the connections.. this horse is very cleverly bred.

richplenger's picture

Road to thje Derby continues April 12th

Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby may or may not change the outlook for the Kentucky Derby but the six top contenders are not to be determined yet. Number one is California Chrome with 150 points and a 109 speed. Number two is Vicars in Trouble with 120 points and a 105 speed. Number three is Wicked Strong with 102 points and a 107 speed and an amazing closing speed. Number four is Samrat with 100 points and a 103 speed. Number five is Constitution with 100 points and a 103 speed. Number six is Hoppertunity with 95 points and a 105 speed. Number seven is Intense Holiday with 93 points and a 106 speed. Number eight is Wildcat Red with 90 points and a 106 speed. The next nearest at present is 60 points. There is always a chance a new contender could appear on the 12th. Who ever wins the Kentucky Derby must be flexible distance runner to win the Crown.

richplenger's picture

Road to thje Derby continues April 12th

Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby may or may not change the outlook for the Kentucky Derby but the six top contenders are not to be determined yet. Number one is California Chrome with 150 points and a 109 speed. Number two is Vicars in Trouble with 120 points and a 105 speed. Number three is Wicked Strong with 102 points and a 107 speed and an amazing closing speed. Number four is Samrat with 100 points and a 103 speed. Number five is Constitution with 100 points and a 103 speed. Number six is Hoppertunity with 95 points and a 105 speed. Number seven is Intense Holiday with 93 points and a 106 speed. Number eight is Wildcat Red with 90 points and a 106 speed. The next nearest at present is 60 points. There is always a chance a new contender could appear on the 12th. Who ever wins the Kentucky Derby must be a flexible distance runner to win the Crown. 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and 1 1/2!!!! Only one horse has been a undefeated triple crown winner: Seattle Slew!!!!!!

soundofrum's picture

Emerson

Great (right on target) post, as always. Nice to see someone, from the real world of thoroughbred horseracing give their feedback. The mention of, Sir Ivor sure brought back memories. That's when the good foreign horses first started coming to America to race in the Washington DC International. Also a time that turf racing started. Actually, my recollection of turf courses, was when Santa Anita put in a grass course back in the mid fifties. It was 1967, or thereabouts that, Sir Ivor came over for that (at the time) prestigious race.

mysongforyou's picture

California Chrome

If he can run in the slop, because 9 times out of 10 it rains on Derby Day.
Then YES he looks great getting better every race.


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