Horse Racing Fantasy Community

I can't compare Dunkirk to Big Brown. Don't get my wrong, Dunkirk has a lot of talent, but he still has to show what he's made of before he can be compared to Big Brown. I believe Old Fashioned will be the real deal this year. But there are going to be plenty of competitive derby contenders strutting their stuff on the tracks. We'll just have to wait and see!

~Aubrie

First who's his Jockey? I would assume Johnny V. who hasn't raced the horse in a race. That can't be a good thing.
Second he gets one shot - one opportunity to make it to the first saturday in may.
Third if I was a owner/trainer with a Derby hopeful I would be hoping an planning my 2nd - 3rd tier horses to run in that race an make Dunkirk be a champion on march 28 verus may 2.
He's an amazing running horse an will be one to remmeber in the future, but I wouldn't be shocked if he wins the preakness an imperial council in the belmont.
I have to admit thou if "this year is the year for our triple crown horse" Dunkirk is our only hope.

theres only 19 spots left in the derby field because of the winner of that derby challange stakes in england has already secured a spot and dunkirk is 54th on the graded stakes earnings list & thats one big mountian to climb. if he runs third then coolmore's only option would be to run him again in the lexington stakes in hope that he makes the field for the ky derby this yr.

In Dunkirk's first race he was stuck on the rail, dirt in his face, swung out five/six wide into the stretch and won going away in style. Not bad for first time out.

Second time out, he broke from the outside, went seven/eight wide into the first turn and did something only the likes of barbaro and big brown has been able to do at gulfstream going a 1 1/8 - win from an outside post going a distance and he did it in style.

He's bred to love the distance - the farther they go the more he'll love it. Great tactical speed, athletic, good trainer. ALL SYSTEMS GO!

He crushes the Florida field and moves on to the Derby as one of the favorites. Hop on now, this bandwagon is about to get heavy ;)

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May they all come home safely!!!

Ron, I agree I think hes the one...

I have a feeling he blows the doors off in the next race. If he gets a trip anything like "I want Revenge", "Quality Road" or "Friesan Fire" he runs off the screen

Just hold on Gomez!

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May they all come home safely!!!

Make room on that bandwagon; I'm climbing aboard! I LOVE this horse. He wins from difficult post positions and from farther back in the field and makes it look so easy that Granny could do it. I really think he's got the potential to be a triple crown winner (if he keeps this up). He's going to have stiff competition; I really hope he can hold up.

people was saying that last yr about big brown who flopped in the belmont stakes & they said it about curlin the yr before who lost the ky derby.

ummm....That was last year and the year before. This is this year and the Dunkirk wagon is rolling out. Every year I try to pick the horse who I think can not only win the derby, but has the tools and that something special to win the triple crown and be a super star in our game. Obviously, it hasn't worked out for decades, but just like the years before, I'm pitching my tent and crossing my fingers. Feel free to pitch your tent and root for whoever you wish ;)

choo choo...All aboard!

ps
if he loses I can change my mind
lol

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May they all come home safely!!!

Alexandria All the WAY!

Still a tad early for me to make predictions for the Kentucky Derby. Prediction is coming soon, however.
Although I dont like the name, I think it was no fluke that Win Willy beat a top contender at Hugh odds the other day. I like his sire, Monarcho. He (Monarcho) won the 2001 Kentucky Derby, running the distance in the third fastest time.
Only Secretariat and Sham ran faster times in this presigeous race, in the 1973 Kentucky Derby, finishing first and second.
I have to see if he continues to improve, or regress. My gut feeling is that he will hold his improved, current form and be worth considering as a serious contender if he goes in any of the Triple Crown races. Until a few more prep races are in I'm still not making a prediction. But I do have my eyes on Win Willy.
An interesting thing about Win Willy. His sire, Monarchos is also a sire of a horse from the 2008 male files that I keep on winning with as his rider at the marathon distances. He runs like Silky Sullivan, coming from 40 plus lengths out of it. Can you guess who he is???

Well, you just KNEW I wouldn't be able to resist your question, soundofrum. And that was a real head-scratcher! I finally had to just check over the list of horses in the HRF store included in the 2008 male packages, and finally came up with: MEDJOOL (?!?!). I barely even heard of Medjool since last year's Lane's End Stakes. He won the Sir Beufort Stakes at Santa Anita in December over one mile, but I sure would never dream of him being a "marathon" runner, necessarily.

And I had to laugh at the fact that you don't like Win Willy's name. Neither do I, but unfortunately that doesn't count for much, alas. I thought the name "Smarty Jones" sounded absolutely awful. Not very dignified, at all, I thought, for the world's most famous race.

Ken

He is a gray and ran in last position for most of the 2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup that Curlin won. I think he finished 4th on what looks like a sloppy track. He's trained by Jone's. Eight Belles trainer.
I sure hope to see him run this year in real life. He's just awesom (sp) in our game at the marathon distances. One of my favorites now. Boy, does he come from the clouds. But needs the distance.

I never would have dreamed of him; barely heard of him, in fact! However, his distance ability makes sense if you believe in the usefulness of dosage. His dosage index, according to Pedigree Query, is a very low 1.91, and Center of Distribution 0.44--both indicative of a stayer.

Where has he been lately, or was he retired?? Thanks for the tip on using him!

Ken

If he wins the Florida Derby, he will be my pick in the Derby. He is better bred than Big Brown and should love the Derby distance. He has had trouble in both of his races but overcame it. Very impressive. His Dam (An AP Indy Mare) also ran well there winning the Oaks under Pat Day. Go Dunkirk!!!
Frelance

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May they all come home safely!!!

I think the knock on Dunkirk up til now, would be that he has zero Graded Stakes earnings. Sure that could and probably will change overnight if he wins or finishes in the money in the Florida Derby. I liked his come from behind style of winning his maiden race and then that Allowance race, but I would never pick him for My Kentucky Derby selection off of those two races. At least not now. The competition wouldn't have been of top quality in his victories. Plus, the final times weren't that impressive. I understand he's working nicely in Florida. Oh, I wish him well ( don't get me wrong )and hope his followers are on the right track. However, I wan't to see more. The Florida Derby next week will tell the story. Can't wait. Can't wait for the Santa Anita Derby either. What a race that will be.

I hear you sound. Big Brown had the same amount of graded earnings about this time last year too. That's what led me to ask the original question. I for one never look at final times when comparing competition because the are very misleading, that's why speed figures are so important. Sure we could wait to after all the prep races and pick out one we like, but sometimes a horse catches your attention and you become a fan. Big Brown did it last year and this year its Dunkirk and The Pamplemousse, although I'm higher on Dunkirk as you can tell ;) I've seen all I need to see to put him on the top of my list. I'll save you a seat next to me after the Florida Derby ;)

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May they all come home safely!!!

dunkirk isn't like big brown so you can't compare the two colts. for all you know that dunkirk has been beating up on medicore fields and will fade in the florida derby.

but one thing that he's not is big brown. dunkirk was too immature to be ran at 2 unlike big brown.
dunkirk has been sound & doesn't have shelly feet like big brown.
big brown had probably lost his only race to two factors.
1. he had got a quarter crack after the preakness
2. he wasn't on steriods for the belmont stakes which it exposed him for the fraud that he was.

dunkirk just because he was a distance pedigree doesn't mean that he'll last. mainly because i haven't ever heard of a unbridled's song winning the belmont stakes.

No but Unbridled's Song Was The 2yr Old Champion. Pick One To Beat Dunkirk. This Horse Is No Fluke. I Believe His Bottom Will Be Enough To Get The Distance In The Derby. My Advice, Don't Bet Against Him This Weekend. This Is The Last Time He Will Be A Good Price. He Had A Bullet Work In Company And Is Dead Fit.
Frelance

Okay, OK, Dunkirk isn't like Big Brown, but you don't make a very good argument Ashley12. Mediocre competition is exactly what Brownie beat up on in his first couple races and for you know Dunkirk might win by a pole. Big Brown had one race at 2 and it was in September. So What?

I am not saying Big Brown has been reincarnated or cloned. I know Dunkirk is not really Big Brown. I was just comparing the similarities

- Both lightly race
- Both only had a maiden and an allowance win at Gulfstream before they entered the Florida Derby
- Both showed tons of talent and was put down by the naysayers for not beating anyone.

Both will crush the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby

I'm just touting the horse I like. That's it. I'll be silent on this matter until after the Florida Derby...when he crushes them :) lol

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May they all come home safely!!!

Dunkirk has looked nice in his two wins, but I'm not sure you can even say he's that similar to Big Brown at this stage. Dunkirk's allowance win was impressive considering he got mugged on the first turn, and his maiden win was nice, but Big Brown at this point had put up two electrifying performances, something Dunkirk hasn't even done once. You can't really even begin to compare Dunkirk's allowance win to Big Brown's. Dunkirk drew away by 5 lengths only because he was the only horse who wasn't staggering in the stretch - Big Brown demolished his foes with authority.

That said, Dunkirk certainly has license to improve and could easily win the FL Derby, but I wouldn't bet on him as a certain huge underlay (he'll surely be heavily favored) versus Quality Road and Theregoesjojo. And he hasn't shown me anything close to the brilliance we saw right away from Big Brown or Curlin yet, the last two horses to come into the Derby with comparable records.

yes because big brown was a known front runner or stalker and he won his first 4 races by 15 lengths on turf, 12 3/4 lengths in a race rained off the turf course, 5 3/4 lengths in the florida derby, 4 3/4 lengths in the derby then he won the preakness by 5 3/4 lengths. what made big brown so deadly was that he had that deadly turf kick and that's how he demolished his rivals. and him winning the preakness stakes by 5 3/4 lengths was more impressive since he had got a quarter crack after the race so you know that his feet had to be stinging him somewhat.

as for dunkirk he has to prove himself before you even call him a ky derby winner.

I use numerous variables when handicapping a given race. The conditions of a race dictate what variables are important and which ones aren't.
When a horse is competing against Graded Stakes winners and second and third place finishers for the first time, he/she, for the most part, is outclassed on paper. This is the situation Dunkirk is faced with in the Florida Derby. He has to do well here for me to upgrade his class rating. Until he does that, he's not considered by me as the one to fear most in these prestigeous Graded Stakes races.
Sure he's from Pletchers barn and has Garret Gomez aboard. That's a big plus. But who's he beat to date. Winning a maiden race and then an allowance race in relatively slow times doesn't make him a star. To look ahead for him winning the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, before he's faced graded competion
is something I'd never do. He has to prove himself. Maybe he will in the Florida Derby.
Ok, he's got the right connections, is undefeated ( 2 wins on synthetic surface ) and has the media hype. A victory in the Florida Derby would give him a 3 for 3 record, all on the synthetic surface.
Churchill Downs is a dirt track. We don't know if Dunkirk could handle dirt, let alone race well against horse who ave already proven their class in Graded competion.
I understand Plecther didn't think that much of the horse as a 2 year old. Two top riders gave up the mount. Pletcher had to convince Garret Gomez to come from California to ride his horse.
Let me say this. I've said it more than once already. I don't dislike Dunkirk. His two wins impressed me and I continue to wish him well. I don't dismiss his chances of winning on Saturday. I'm a handicapper. I'm a better. I know anything is possible. I just apply rules to how I go about selecting a horse that I want to invest my money on. I see red flags.
One more thing. Today, I don't know what the competition is in the Florida Derby. He may be entered against a weak field where there aren't any horses that did well in Graded Stakes races. If that's so, then I upgrade his chances. I doubt if that will be the case on Saturday though.
If it is a weak field and he does well, then we could still say, ' Who did he beat "

ok i'm not trying to say that your stupid or anything but seriously what are you on? because the last time that i had checked that gulfstream park is a natural dirt track. and you need to look things up before you say something like this again. Gulfstream park isn't a synthetic surface.
dunkirk hasn't stepped foot on a synthetic track much less ran on one.

A victory in the Florida Derby would give him a 3 for 3 record, all on the synthetic surface.

I made a big mistake. I didn't intentionally mean to mislead anybody. Disregard the portion of my post where I mention Dunkirk's record on a synthetic surface. I'm wong. I must be tired from caring for a sick wife after hip replacement surgery. My days are long with much to do. Please accept my sincere apology.
" GUESS I'M NOT SMARTER THAN A FIFTH GRADER ". LOL

i think that you had got the pamplemousse & dunkirk mixed up since their both grey colts and both are unbeatened this yr. but the mousse ran at 2. but everyone is more than entitled to make mistakes.
i wasn't trying to be overavertly harash just trying to point something out to you.

Dunkirk honestly reminds me nothing of Big Brown. Big Brown was visually impressive in his maiden (turf race) and his 3 year old debut (monster dirt race) after a loooong layoff because of 2 quarter cracks.

Big Brown was both 1) visually impressive, meaning when you see the race you're like 'WOW!' 'This is a good horse!' and 2) he did it in very fast times.

When Big Brown won the Florida Derby, you could just see he was a monster horse. He ran WAAAYY too fast early in the race, and still looked well within himself in the stretch, under almost no urging from Kent.

When I see horses win races by large margins but in slow times (on a fast track, a slow or sloppy track I understand), it just makes me feel like the horse just beat a horrible group. Winning by BIG margins in very fast times is what I look for... 'Affirmitif' looks pretty damn good but for some reason he's not getting much attention.

But I understand the similarities, if Dunkirk wins this Saturday, he'll be 3 for 3 just like Big Brown was going into the Derby, but a horse winning the Derby with only 3 career starts is something you won't see for a long time =]

Saturday will be a lot of fun

Guess we all know that Sir Barton was a maiden when he entered the Kentucky Derby. Interestingly he won and went on to become Americas first Triple Crown winner.

well in the days of those horses the people who owned top fillies didn't care about their gender and ran them against the boys regardless. like regret for example. but it's a shame that the owners and trainers in america won't do what the officials do in over countries such as europe, ireland and such by banning all medications and drugs. if a horse even races on drugs or medication then if it's a stallion then their banned from standing stud in germany.

Gulfstream is dirt.
Frelance

Yes, Gulfstream Park is a dirt track. Not a synthetic track. I made a mistake the other day and said the opposite on this thread, when talking about Dunkirk. A following post by me, had me recognizing and correcting my error and apologizing to the community.