What's with all the breeding noise. Rather than run around looking for the hot horse, perhaps it's right under each one's nose. Just supposed when you join the game, the computer assigns you to a hot pair. And just suppose that when you find that hot pair that it's programed to provide numbers based on hits. Let's just say that 1 out of every 10 breeds gets you a horse in the teens (115), 1 out of every 20 a 120, and 1 out of every 100, a 130. Everything else is random until you hit a warm pair at a preappointed time. Notice the words "preappointed time!" Or supposed you're assigned a key to one given horse that unlocks other horses to breed decent numbers. When you (breed) a pair of horses that someone else breeds, you get a decent number, but usually not as good as theirs so your ASR will always be lower. It's usually not as good because the program always moves down from a predetermined high or perhaps, it's not your predetermined combination. Maybe your assigned key only unlocks certain horses to your hot pair.
High numbers usually move down and through a cycle. Cycle one: 140 - 98, cycle two: 120 - 96, cycle three: 112 - 92. The larger question becomes - Who is the Lucky Winner of the first hit or first cycle?
Maybe that's why certain people gravitate to certain horses. How many times have you gone and checked out one of the "big spenders" last breeds. You breed the same pair and you get a decent number but more than not it won't be as high as their initial hit. I figure the computer is programed to reduce ASRs on pairs based on the number of hits.
Say my hot pair is Alydar and Twilight Tear and I happen to hit it at the right time and get a 140. You look at my horse and see that it's NN and not vetted. Chances are that the horse is better than just good. So you try breeding the same pair but the computer now knows to adjust back to a lower number, say 109.8. You look at that and say - hey, not a bad number. You vet the horse and he goes up to say 115. Not too bad. That works.
You come right back and breed the same pair again your number is now lower at 105. The computer is programed to bring the number down to a bottom line figure before it goes back up. It appears that it bottoms out normally somewhere in the 90's. When I breed a decent pair, once the number hits in the 90's, chances are that the next number will go back to the high. Say now, it's 107.6. Now it turns down again. The highs and lows close in on each other until your breeding just average numbers.
At this point of the breeding process, many will take one side of what becomes the warm side of a horse (one side of a potential hot pair) and begin breeding it with one or two others; either at random or perhaps personal favorites. The one side of the single warm horse will run random from Sire to Dam. You will sometimes get some decent numbers because one side of the pair is warmer than the other. Perhaps that's why we're all getting just normal horses with a 120 mixed in here and there. I've spent as much money in breeding the past month as the biggest stable in this game . . . it's not necessarily about numbers. Perhaps we're all assigned a "key" to a particular horse; one barn can get good breeds out of Dr. Fager and another not so good because it not one of his/her keys.
Notice something else, how often do the larger stables go around complaining, asking questions or give opinions on breeding. At this point it's my conviction that larger stables have gained the knowledge (or have found some other edge) as to the key to matching two warm horses = hot pairing. It's taking the warm side of one horse and matching it to three of four other horses of the other side to come up with the proverbial "hot" number.
Now here's my two cents on Insta Tournaments:
What's the game all about? Points. I have won all my points in Insta Tourneys because they're quick (time lapse) and produce larger point payouts. Ever notice that the points aren't normally shared between 4 horses as in Breeder Cup race (which can take up to 23 days to occur)? I have over $1,000,000 in dollar earnings and 900,000 points - which is close to an even ratio. Of course that ratio will decline as I enter more general tournaments, but my goal is to try and keep those numbers close. If you look at the some barns, they're ratios aren't very close at all. High dollar figures but low point totals. What some of the competition has learned is that I was running good horses in Instas, none of which have been over 122, and winning. I have one horse, Gyp Joint, that I raced in an Insta (not lost to a claim) and won 180,000 in points. What other type of tournament is available right now where the winner will share anything close to that figure. Now that everyone knows that I run good horses in Instas, they claim them. That's fine with me. I'll run a 120 horse anyday for 180,000 points (that's seven breeds or perhaps a month of stable fees for 21 horses) Take a look at the point earnings of some of the better horses at the larger stables. Some of them win over a million dollars in earnings but don't come close to that figure in points.
I guess I'm promoting Insta tourneys. I hope the barns that run their donkeys and don't win keep running them. I love Instas because they pay good! I would suggest that some of the newer players take a look at the advantage that's available with the Insta and consider how the gain can outweigh the loss.
Good luck and fun to all!
Good Info for us new guys. Thanks
Sometimes it seems that the chances of getting a very good to great horse are the same as finding the golden ticket in a Wonka Bar.
The game is constantly changing and the developers, I think, have or may be changing how things were in the past to make it a more level playing field for general members to be able to find that good horse in the breeding shed. In the past I think that the new members 1st horse was at least decent to good with a few great ones thrown in. When a few members realized this some created duplicate accounts to get another good (to great horse) results, HRF justifiably changed to keep that from happening again.
I have been lucky to have hit on one very good horse over the last 6 months (and about a million points later), she will never see an Insta-tournament (Sentamental value). I look forward to the continuing trainers experiences and analysis of the game and breeding. One of the best ways to become good and stay good in this game is to grow with it and read and re-read puddles weekly blogs and interesting post and topics such as this one. I also like the Generals articles of what is currently going on in the game, it gives the bigger picture of what is going on and the participants within the game (horses and trainers).
As for the Insta-tournaments, I haven't tried them yet but I have entered a 110.2 un vetted FN SR horse in its first tournament, and I plan to enter it later in an Insta-tournament. I wanted to provide at least one past performance tournament for any perspective claimers. I had two mules, an NN and PN that I retired because they were both below 96 and did lousy in their training and I didn't have the heart to pass them on to others. This horse (Deliverance, Sire Damascus & Dam Shuvee, 4.9 peak age) is young and developing, two 7th place finishes so far from outside post positions (10 & 8) with two races to go. I think that once it develops its stamina it will do well and can be vetted if a new owner decides to take that risk.
I'm thining out my stable of about eight horses to six and maybe even five as I won't have the time to manage the all the horses I now have nor do I have the time to earn my daily points (Managing/Coaching youth baseball, two teams) however, I plan to stay a VIP. I also will not be breeding again until after the baseball season is over in late July.
Good luck to all in tournament races and hope to see you at the finish line.
All theories presented are nice to read about and are appreciated. We must remember, however, that they are just theories.
Personally, I think you're on to something. My guess is that many things within our game are programmed the way programmers program all of those thousands of machines at Indian gaming casinos. I read something last year about this.
Also, the word, "random" is often misunderstood and manipulated. This could be controlled by good programmers.
William Kindur
There has to be a leak in the breeding system. The odds are to astronimical to just hit a good horse by accident.
I was a VIP last year but I had to cancel because I didn't have a checking account. Thanks this year to my big tax refund check, I am a VIP again and I don't plan on cancelling it. I plan on staying a VIP for a long time. I am one of those that have been claiming horses because, like you said, the chances of getting a good horse is better than breeding one. Don't get me wrong, I am sure that there are good breedings out there, but you already know the breeding with getting a horse from claiming races. I have claimed a few that have turned out to be good horses and I will find out what my new one is like when she races in the Get In Play tourney.
~~~Sharon~~~
very good post , and very interesting to read , You are right about the breding , When it comes to breding it`s like lotto. You may haft to buy a few tickets before you get a small win , Haft to try a few dif systems and see what works. Unsure if every person has a hot pair or not , Does help to try a few things , see what every one eles is doing.
Work hard ,Play hard, Bet hard , Drink hard , or go home
You are in a good position to improve your stable. You have become (again apparently) a VIP. That elevates the possibility of claiming a good horse dramatically. Your stable, Flyingdaaka's stable, and many others like it are now "employing" stables like Kindurs. The Kindurs of the HRF world go out and breed for us. When the Kindurs get antsy, and want some return on their investment, they enter some quality from what they bred into insta-claim races. They aren't looking to the future, they just want some quick points, and some justification for their breeding. Smaller, more intelligent stables step in and claim these horses. The Kindurs of HRF are happy with the points from the claiming races, and now, the smaller stables can compete as they have gotten some decent horses.
Flyingdaaka laughs when some of these trainers cry and beg for breeding / vetting prices to go down. It's all simple supply and demand. Take a look at a sampling of horses out there. Note how many of them have been vetted. The percentage is way up there. Why ??? The demand to improve their horse through vetting is as strong as ever, despite all these stories about losing 20-30 points on their SR. HRF management wasn't born yesterday. They know the market is strong, why even consider lowering the prices.
My sister loves to go to the Indian gaming casinos in California. My wife and I go with her at times, but we don't have the interest that she does and as a result, don't bet as much and seldom, if ever, win.
We like and do better at the track. My sister does terrible at the track but often wins big at the casinos. Why????????????? Well, she pushes a lot of money through those machines. We don't.
Not trying to be critical of our game, or especially the breeding part, but I think it's pretty much set up in a similar manner as the various type machines at these casinos. The way they're programmed. JMO I wish they'd change it so that it reflects real breeding strategy. Perhaps I'm missing something. I don't know.Could be part of the complexity. Guess time will tell.
Everything I put into the claiming races has a SR of over 100. The ones that are under that either go into restricteds or to the petting zoo.
Ones chances for finding a decent, winning horse are better to find in claiming races as opposed to breeding. You aren't the only one who is getting horses claimed, there is a claiming frenzy out there right now. Trainers are realizing odds are better to claim a good horse than breed one. Flyingdaaka has witnessed some long time non-VIP members suddenly become a VIP so they have a shot at claiming. With all that rhetoric you pointed out about breeding, the bottom line is, it is almost impossible to breed a great horse. The current philosophy for several trainers right now is to have people like you go out and breed and some good horses will filter down and become available.
Many top trainers (and not top) get most of their horses claimed when entering. Flyingdaaka, a new and unproven trainer has entered 10 claiming races, 5 times his horse has been claimed (incidently, you are one of the 5 trainers who claimed one). That shows you the desperation out there for claiming. Flyingdaaka sees trainers who consistently enter horses in claiming races and consistently finish at the rear continue to enter and have horses claimed. Some of that is due to the high amount of irresponsible trainers currently in the game, and some is due to hoping a good horse is in the claiming race.
As far as points go, yes, you are correct about large points being available in claiming races, but some of that was due to HRF's error in payouts during last month. You are correct about insta-claiming races being a good spot to make points. Flyingdaaka believes one should enter a horse in these races only if it has a chance at winning. Many trainers are still in the mode of dumping off poor horses, hoping they get claimed instead of simply retiring them. This results in a field usually with only 3 or 4 strong horses. Until this changes, insta-claiming races will be a good spot for earning points.