Here is a list of nomited horses for the Monmouth Stakes. As expected, a lot of noms and a few good horses and some 35k claimers too: (thanks to Thoroughbredtimes)
"The nominations, excluding late mail, for the Monmouth Stakes are:
Ballonenostrikes; Operation Red Dawn; Barcola; Out of Control; Big Brown; Pleasant Strike; Call My Bluff; Proudinsky; Distorted Reality; R J’s Brigade; Dr Rico; Red Rocks; Drum Major; Ruff and Ready; Fagedaboudit Sal; Salinja; Get Serious; Saratoga Saint; Hotstufanthensome; Shake the Bank; Hunting Print; Shakis; Icy Atlantic; Silver Tree; Independent George; Star Plus; Kiss the Kid; Victory Alleged; Little Dovefeather; War Monger; Minister’s Joy; Wesley; Nergal; Xela; Nightscape "
Comments
Now that will be interesting to say the least, first he knocks off Curlin and now takes his shot at Big Brown. If the Rock and a couple of the others run then Big Brown better be 100% and come with his running shoes on and his A+ game anything less will mean defeat.
But I can find a good 8 C+ to B Horses. I may give Red Rocks a B+ that can beat Mr. Big Brown. Most Likely they won't be entered thou.
So the list in order that can Beat BB
1) Red Rocks - Can run with the best of them on good days. lol
2) Shakis - The stranger horses out there but can put some great races.
3) War Monger - been noted to put a race together.
4) Silver Tree - always runs well.
5) Drum Major - don't see many stalker types in here - so would fit.
6) Icy Atlantic - seems to race to compeition
7) Ruff and Ready - he he a claimer type still can beat BB
8) Proudinsky - just because will have Edgar Prado or Garrett Gomez.
If Iavarone and crew are right and Big Brown does run better on turf than he does on dirt, the race won't even be close. Also, from their recent interviews it seems like Big Brown is starting to act like his old self in the barn which is probably a sign he may run like he did earlier in the year. I can't believe any of that yet though. Although the possible field is stronger than most people would have thought it would be, I still think BB wins here. Maybe by less than a length, but I think the race will set up well for him. He should be able to get the lead, which makes him very tough to beat. If he has to go 4 or 5 wide he won't place, but with a good trip he should be able to pull out a victory.
BTW the99ride, when you say Red Rocks is a B+ turf horse, you mean by the world standards right? I sure hope you don't mean when comparing Red Rocks to the rest of the country because Red Rocks may very well be the favorite in the BCT.
We must not lose sight that Big Brown won his career start at Saratoga racetrack on the turf and by more than 11 lengths. I like Big Brown. In fact, I like him a lot and hope he wins. At his best he most certainly will.
The problem with me right now is that I'm not so sure he is at his best. Actually, I think he's not, but hope that I'm wrong. Sure, he showed courage in winning the Haskel when it looked like he wasn't going to win. All great horses must have and demonstrate this courage to come out on top.
I have an idea what might have happened on Belmont day. I saw him on TV acting up badly in the holding stall and kicking at the walls. It is my belief that he may have injured himself then, before the race. Oh, nothing major and I could be wrong, but enough to make him feel some pain during the running of the race.
To me, watching these scenes live, I couldn't believe his handlers let this go on without removing him from his stall. I'm sure this would have been allowed. At least I'd like to think so. Btw, this is merely my own opinion, based on my observations at the time. I've never once heard anyone else say this. I still am convinced that, Curlin is the better of the two today and perhaps the best in the world today.If not the world, at least in America.
Depending on the size of the field of course, this could be all about post position and the trip. At his best BB of course can win but he will have to be at the top of his game here and that is a huge question mark. I'm going with Red Rocks and an exacta of RR and Proudinsky.
I think Red Rocks is the real thing. Certainly, his win in the Man O' War recently, over, Curlin was no fluke. He's a classy horse that loves the grass and has stamina needed for these marathon races. I like the fact that he's adapted so well to a foreign country. At any rate, he's dangerous and has to be respected.
One of the keys here is that Big Brown will be getting weight from most of the contenders
THE MONMOUTH STAKES
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free nominations close Wednesday, September
3. $200 supplementary nomination may be made at time of entry. $500 to enter. Weights: Three
Year Olds 120 lbs; Older 124 lbs. Non-Winners of $70,000 twice at a mile or over since May 1,
2008 allowed 3 lbs; $45,000 at a mile or over since June 1,2008 5 lbs. The winning owner to
receive a trophy.
~~~~~~~~
May they all come home safely!!!
Can't over emphasize the importance of this 4 pound weight advantage in Big Brown's favor. Another plus (key) for, Big Brown is that he won his very first race on a turf course and by 11 plus lengths. Not sure if this will be a new trend, running grass races before Triple Crown races. Don't remember seeing this in the past.
We've all read about Big Brown having foot problems. I'm think that sometimes trainers find the turf a little easier going for their horses who have problems with their feet. I've also read that many horses do well on these new synthetic surfaces after coming off a grass race. That's probably the real intention of Brown's trainer. I'm still left wondering the trainers intentions of running Big Brown on turf as his first start. I don't know, but am thinking feet problems. JMHO
In last years Belmont, I picked the filly, Rags To riches over, Curlin because of the weight advantage. This was my tie breaker. I collected a nice exacta payoff on my twenty dollar exacta.
4 Pounds usually accounts for about 4 lengths difference in the course of the race. I already thought Big Brown was a length or two better than the rest of the field, now that turns into 5-6 lengths which is very hard to make up. I want to pose a question to everybody: If BB gets a clean lead along the rail, do you think there is any way he gets beat? I personally think he has too much talent to lose once he gets an easy lead. I would not be surprised with the weight factor if Big Brown romped here. If you have Big Brown and Red Rocks in the game, check out the difference between him and Red Rocks at 9 furlongs. On a soft turf course I ran with BB and won by 8.5 lengths in 1:46 and 1 and on a hard turf course I won by 7 lengths in 1:46. If the game is accurate, this will be a big statement race.
If Big Brown repeats his very best races from the past, I am of the opinion that the race will be over as soon as the gates swing open.
He'll immediately go to the front and control the pace every step of the way, winning going away. However, I am still suspect of his true form today.
If I'm right and I hope I'm not, he will use the same tactics described, but will eventually fold. Oh, he could land second. This will set it up for Red Rocks coming from the clouds for the victory. At any rate, if it's on TV ,I'll be watching and routing for Big Brown. I want him to win, but like I've been saying on a few threads, I'm not convinced that he's at the top of his game. Come on Big Brown, prove me wrong. This will make me happy.
I dont think post position will matter to much in this race. A 1 1/8 mile race at Monmouth is from the chut it is a long way before you get to a small turn and then even longer to the first main turn so plenty of time to get position...if BB does indeed get a outside slot, if he does show a good turn of foot from the gate which he usually does, i think he will be fine.
PS I think I am going to have a Maiden in on the undercard, that is if the stupid guy can stay healthy and not get to worked up and hurt himself!
Red Rocks, the morning-line favorite, will be scratched from Saturday's Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga after developing filling in a hind ankle, trainer Mark Hennig said Friday.
"I dont want to aggravate it on soft going," Hennig said.
Red Rocks, the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf winner, was coming off a victory over reigning Horse of the Year Curlin in the Grade 1 Man o' War at Belmont July 12. His defection leaves seven in the Sword Dancer, with the morning-line favorite now Better Talk Now, who won the race in 2004.
Hopefully he'll be well enough to run in the big race at Monmouth Park, where, apparently Big Brown is headed. That ankle injury might force me to re-evaluate that race. I hear Big brown is training well on the turf. His connections are happy.
Not sure how that happened.