Horse Racing Fantasy Community

What a great weekend for fans of horse racing! My week got started off on the right foot as Belmont Park opened today. As a new NYRA employee, it was my first opening day, and what a thrill it was. For a fan of the sport from a young age, it was amazing for me to stand by the paddock and realize that I was going to be spending the next however many years in an office overlooking the paddock where the great Secretariat was saddled before his epic win in the 1973 Belmont Stakes. I may not have been born then, but the sense of history is not lost on me.

Before we get to to all the big New York races, the focus goes to Louisville where we have a great weekend of racing with the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. For those of your that have been following my Derby blog, I will be posting a complete summary of plays for the Derby either tomorrow or Friday night.

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Friday is always a great day of racing before the Derby, and I have an eye on some horses that could run well. Here we go!

Race 7 - Edgewood Stakes - 3yo fillies - 8.5f on the turf
Nine fillies are going postward in this race, which came up pretty lightly. One of my favorite angles to look at is what horses tend to improve in certain situations. For example, some horses tend to run well off long layoffs, and some horses tend to run well 2nd off a long layoff, etc... I think I have found such a horse in #2, Holy Grace. In two previous races where she was 2nd off the layoff, she improved her Beyer Speed Figure by 27 points and 10 points, respectively. This just happens to be her 2nd race off the layoff, and a similar improvement would put her in the winner's circle. She has a great turf jockey in Ramon Dominguez, and a great post position with number 2, and the best part is that she is 8/1 on the morning line. She would be worth a play win-place-show.

Race 8 - Alysheba Stakes - Older males - 8.5f on the dirt
A small field goes postward here, and again my angle is the 2nd race off the layoff. Chelokee was a very promising 3yo last year, but trainer Michael Matz took his time and let him develop into his frame. He won his 2008 debut rather easily and should really improve off that. He is the co-second choice on the morning line at 3/1, and I think that anything 5/2 or over will be value on him. I predict an easy victory.

Race 9 - American Turf - 3yo colts - 8.5f on the turf
A pretty decent group of 3yo colts on the turf. These are some of the best betting races you can find because some of these horses have never tried turf but will likely be bet because of their good dirt or synthetic track form. In this race, two such horses could be Blackberry Road and Halo Najib. Both were on the Derby trail and both have some notoriety. I think Halo Najib may like the turf, but I have major doubts about Blackberry Road. The two horses I like are Prussian and Nistle's Crunch. The former had nice 2yo form before struggling over the bog on Breeders Cup Day, and the latter is coming off a very nice turf allowance score at Keeneland. Prussian is 6/1 and Nistle's Crunch is 4/1, and they could form a really nice exacta.

Race 10 - Kentucky Oaks - 3yo fillies - 9f dirt
It's a really nice group of fillies for this year's Kentucky Oaks! What stands out on paper is the real lack of speed in this race, which should really favor the fillies that can flash at least some early turn of foot. Proud Spell is a deserving favorite and will be tough to beat, but don't throw out Bsharpsonata and Little Belle. Both of them will be very nice odds. And for a real longshot, one filly that could hit the board at big odds is Rasierra, who is an absurd 50/1 on the morning line!

Good luck everyone, and may the horse be with you :)