Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Attempting to select a Derby winner the morning of the race is an incredibly difficult proposition. Think about it. These are still relatively young horses being asked to do two things they have never done before. For the first (and last) time in their careers, they will go postward with 19 other horses. This creates total chaos. At least three horses every year have any chance at winning ruined by an awful trip. And for the first time in their careers, they will be asked to run a mile-and-a-quarter distance. Many of these horses want no part of this distance. One of my friends once said that the Derby is like feeding a bunch of 15-year-olds a few bottles of whiskey and then betting on which one can run to the pisser the fastest- if they don't fall down. Of course I don’t condone that sort of behavior, but you get the drift.

Luckily, I’ve fallen on the right horse the last two years of the Derby. I thought that Barbaro was the most talented horse in 2006, and last year it seemed that Street Sense was sitting on a monstrous race.

In this blog I am going to keep an updated list of my top ten Derby horses, and make some commentary on the big races coming up on the Derby trail. I’ll take it through the Belmont, and hopefully it will be an exciting (and profitable!) trail for all of us.

When reading my Top Ten, keep in mind that I am a pedigree-buff, and I tend to lean towards horses that have the pedigree to get the Derby distance. There are a number of very talented horses that I don't think will get the distance, and I have modified their rankings accordingly.

Dan’s Derby Rankings

1. Big Brown

No doubt about it, Big Brown is the most talented 3yo colt so far in 2008, as illustrated by his awesome Florida Derby.

Trained by Rick Dutrow, this horse had a sensational debut on the turf last summer at Saratoga, winning an MSW by 10+ lengths. He had some physical ailments and was scheduled to return to the track at Gulfstream in another turf race. However, that race came off the turf and was run on the dirt. No problem for Big Brown though, as he absolutely crushed the race by 13 lengths with an awesome 104 Beyer Speed Figure. Combined with the Florida Derby, he has now run the two best Beyer figures of the year for 3yo's going a route of ground. He almost reminds me of Barbaro with his dual-surface prowess and his huge stride. The lone question marks that remain are his feet ailments and his inexperience. But seeing that he beat a large field in the Florida Derby from the outside post, I don't think the inexperience will be a problem. He could be a big favorite in the Derby!
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

2. Colonel John

What does it say about this year's Derby class that I have a horse ranked #2 that has never run on dirt, especially given the fact that I am always more cautious when it comes to surface switches than most? Trained by Eoin Harty, this son of Tiznow had a very impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby:

He is still very green, which you can tell from the way that he was all over the place in the stretch and didn't get going until almost too late. But his talent is undisputed, and he gobbles up ground with his huge strides. In addition, his pedigree is tremendous for the Derby distance. That being said, it is still troublesome to me that he has never run on the dirt. The Kentucky Derby will be his first race on the dirt, and that has to be cause for concern. I know a number of people that now have him as their #1, but the assumption that he will handle dirt is a bit presumptuous. But really, who else is there?
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

3. Monba

There will be many people who dismiss this horse in the Derby because his awesome Toyota Blue Grass win was on the synthetic surface:

However, this horse has a win over the Churchill track and he has a perfect Derby distance pedigree, by Maria's Mon out of an Easy Goer mare. This is Todd Pletcher's best shot at the Derby this year, and he will make sure that Monba is ready to roll the first Saturday in May. He is a great looking individual and might be getting good at the right time. His one bad race was in the Fountain of Youth, but it was so bad that it should be thrown out. He's a real Derby contender.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

4. Denis of Cork

Ok, leap of faith time here, as I am going to leap-frog this horse up to number 4 on a hunch that he will rebound. Trained by David Carroll, this son of Harlan's Holiday ran a total stinker the Illinois Derby. But that track was playing weirdly that day and it could be a throw out for him. His win in the Southwest was very impressive:

As you can see, he sat well back of a blistering pace and unleashed a torrid stretch rally to win going away by two lengths. Admittedly he had a perfect set-up as a closer, with the screamingly fast fractions up front, but it still ranks as one of the top performances from any 3yo not named Big Brown. He needs a defection to get into the Derby, but if he gets in, I will use him in my wagers at what should be a nice price. He has a great pedigree for the Derby, out of an Unbridled mare.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

5. Pyro

I have never been a huge fan of this horse, but he certainly isn't as bad as his 10th place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass. He obviously did not like the synthetic surface. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Pyro will definitely still have backers for the Derby. His win in the Louisiana Derby was visually impressive, albeit on the slow side:

This effort was very similar to his win in the Risen Star. Trailing the field through tepid fractions and bottled up on the rail at the top of the stretch, he found running room with a furlong to go and flew home to an easy victory. Ignoring the Blue Grass and looking forward to the Derby, I still have question marks about his sire, Pulpit, passing along enough stamina for him to stay the distance. In addition, his extreme closing style could lead to him running into traffic problems in stretch. He will probably be at shorter odds than he should be in the Derby because of his large fan club, so I won't be putting much money on him.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

6. Cool Coal Man

It's hard to say whether this horse will even go to the Derby after his stinker in the Toyota Blue Grass, finishing 9th. Trained by Nick Zito, he still must be given some respect off his win in the Fountain of Youth, although the top finishers from that race haven't run well since:

It has come to my attention that this horse has major soundness issues. Because of that, I am not sure whether he will go to Louisville or not. By Mineshaft, Cool Coal Man should love stretching out to the Derby Distance if he goes. If Zito can get him right for the Derby, he could run better than expected. He has run well at Churchill before.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

7. Recapturetheglory

Trained by Louie Roussel, this horse debuts on the list after a somewhat surprising 15/1 victory in the Illinoir Derby. He set the pace and never looked back, finishing in a nice time of 1:49 flat.

Some of my friends liked him in this spot, mainly because he ran well against Cool Coal Man at Churchill Downs in November. I'm not sure he has what it takes to win the Derby, but his impressive Illinois Derby certainly puts him in with a fighting chance. And remember that War Emblem was ignored after his big Illinois Derby win, and he won the Kentucky Derby at 20/1.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

8. Smooth Air

This Bennie Stutts-trainee deserves to be in the top ten simply because he has finished the closest to Big Brown of any horse. Of course that still a five length difference.

He's a very game horse who has never finished out of the top three, and is the type that could run well in the Derby at a big price. His breeding is a little suspect for the Derby distance but it seems that this year many horses are in that same boat.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

9. Proud Spell

Aside from the top few, the colts don't look great this year, so why not try a filly in the big race? That is exactly what Larry Jones is thinking, and we may see this nice girl in the Derby starting gates. Her win in the Fair Ground Oaks was awesome:

It is worth noting that Proud Spell and her rival, Indian Blessing, ran much faster than Pyro on the same day at the Fair Grounds. It is obviously a daunting task for a filly to win the Kentucky Derby, but this one has major talent, and if there was ever a year to take a stab, this is it. The connections are saying that they will make a decision on Derby week whether she runs in that spot against the boys or takes on fillies in the Oaks.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

10. Z Fortune

Trained by Steve Asmussen, this colt definitely has had some ups and downs this year. After a nice 2nd to Pyro in the Risen Star, he ran a total clunker in the Rebel. Many people dismissed him after that poor effort, but he came back to run a very wide 2nd in the Arkansas Derby:

Gayego won the race, but Z Fortune got a worse trip and also has a better pedigree for stretching out to the Derby distance. Throw out his Rebel and you have a horse that, based on the numbers, could run well at a nice price in Louisville. I'm not sure if he can win, but hit the board? Absolutely.
Probable Next Race: Kentucky Derby at Churchill, 5/3/2008

That’s the top ten for now. I will update it after we see some workouts over the next week.