Preakness Preview

When Frank Stronach decided to point Harlem Rocker to the Canadian Triple Crown, instead of running in the Preakness at the track that Stronach owns, it all but guaranteed a Big Brown walkover in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. Big Brown is an undefeated 4/4 lifetime and has absolutely demolished all three of his starts this year, including a five length romp in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago:

He received a 109 Beyer speed figure for that effort, which is the fastest 3yo route number this year. Some would argue that Big Brown's five length romp in the Florida Derby was just as impressive:

In that effort, Big Brown registered a ridiculous -3.5 Thorograph number, which is a type of rating that takes ground lost into the equation. That number puts him in the same league as Curlin, Invasor, and Ghostzapper.

Despite these ultra-impressive numbers, there is one concern going into the Preakness. Big Brown has only run four times, and each time trainer Rick Dutrow has been able to take his time in preparing the big bay colt. Now that is not the case. Big Brown will only have two weeks from the Derby to the Preakness, not the normal five that Dutrow likes to give his horses. Because of this, it is very likely that Big Brown is going to regress. The question is, how much will he regress?

My guess is that because of how lightly-raced he is, Big Brown will regress from his massive Derby effort more than most recent Derby winners have regressed. However, luckily for Big Brown, with the defection of Harlem Rocker, it doesn't appear as if there are any horses capable of taking advantage of a possible step back for the big son of Boundary.

To put it into perspective, going a route of ground on the dirt, big Brown has never run slower than a 106 Beyer speed figure. By comparison, the fastest route Beyer on the dirt that any of his Preakness competitors has run is a 103. However, that number was run by Gayego, who also faces the two-week break from the Derby. Aside from Gayego, the best Beyer dirt route figure is Hey Byrn's 97.

But since it still is a horse race, and strange things can happen, here are three possible upsetters of Big Brown, in the order I prefer them:

1) Hey Byrn (20/1) - If you throw out this colt's start in the Florida Derby when he was bumped soundly at the start and raced very wide into the first turn, he is 3/3 with a combined margin of victory of 21 lengths. Of course, all of those wins came at Gulfstream so perhaps he just had an affinity for the track. He has the advantage of a race at the distance, as he won a G3 at the Preakness distance last time out. He would be my top choice to upset Big Brown.

2) Giant Moon (30/1) - I admit I have a soft spot for this horse, but I do think he has a lot of talent. He went undefeated through his first four races, including a few nice stakes at Aqueduct. In his graded debut he didn't run a step in the bog at Aqueduct, and then ran a decent 4th in the Wood Memorial on another wet track (it was marked as fast but there was moisture). Assuming there is a fast track on Preakness Day, he could have a chance to upset.

3) Gayego (8/1) - What's that you say? He lost by 36 lengths to Big Brown in the Derby? True enough, and I certainly don't think he will turn the tables this weekend. So his ranking on this list should tell you how bad the Preakness field is. Aside from Bog Brown, Gayego is the only Derby starter running back in the Preakness. His trainer, Paulo Lobo, is not a dummy, and I suspect that this horse bounced badly in the Derby and will run much better this weekend. If he returns to his Arkansas Derby form, and Big Brown bounces, he could win.

The bottom line, however, is that in spite of a probable regression, Big Brown is simply too good for the Preakness field. He should march on triumphantly to try for the Triple Crown on June 7 at Belmont Park!