Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Kentucky Derby 134 is in the books, and what a BIG performance we witnessed, as BIG BROWN romped to victory by five lengths. Many people doubted that he could accomplish this feat because of his post position, but Big Brown became the first Derby winner from the 20-hole since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. I selected him as my Derby winner because I believed he was simply the best horse in the race, and because he had a leisurely five weeks to train up to the race. Yes, he only had three races going into the race and yes, he had a very light foundation. However, talent often wins out in a horse race, and that certainly was the case this past weekend.

Big Brown's victory celebration was muted when the filly Eight Belles, who had run a gallant 2nd, suffered fractions of both front ankles after the race and had to be euthanized. My thoughts certainly go out to all of her connections, as this obviously as bad as it gets. It is also a shame for the industry as a whole. Barbaro's tragic story was still fresh on the mind of many casual racing fans, and to have another fatality occur on one of the sport's biggest days is not going to do this wonderful sport any favors. The truth is that these breakdowns are few and far between, and it is a real shame that they seem to happen at a disproportionately high ratio on the days when everyone is watching.

Back to the race, kudos to Denis of Cork for running a very nice 3rd place in the Derby. For those who followed my blog and my Derby preview, he was one of my top selections, mainly because of how he'd been training at Churchill all week. He got a dream trip, as Calvin Borel (who skimmed the rail to Derby victory last year aboard Street Sense) immediately took him to the rail and saved all the ground. An agile performer, Denis of Cork weaved his way through traffic and closed with a rush to finish 3rd.

Looking forward to the Preakness

As much as I loved Big Brown going into the Derby, he is going to be vulnerable in the Preakness. I gave him a pass on the fact that he had a light foundation for the Derby because he had five weeks to prepare for the race. Now he only has two weeks to prepare for the Preakness. Any normal horse would regress in this spot, and it may be even more pronounced for Big Brown because of his light foundation.

Even the supremely confident Richard Dutrow is expressing some concerns:

“I can’t stand wheeling back in two weeks, but it doesn’t matter because we’ve gotta do it,” Dutrow said. “When this horse goes into the race the right way, with good timing and all, I don’t see anyone beating him – but now that’s not happening. He’s gotta' come right back off a huge, huge race. I know he looks like he’s the best horse, but Pimlico’s a different game.”

All that being said, Big Brown is so good that he could regress a lot and still potentially win the Preakness. So the question becomes whether or not there will be anyone in that race capable of taking advantage of a tired Big Brown. We wont know who is running for a few weeks, but remember the name Harlem Rocker. Owned by Frank Stronach, this colt by Macho Uno is undefeated and ran a scintillating race to win the Withers at Aqueduct. He ran a 106 Beyer, which is the highest 3yo route number by any horse not named Big Brown.

I'll be posting more as the race grows nearer. I hope everyone enjoyed the derby!

Harlem Rocker Out

Well so much for Harlem Rocker challenging Big Brown in the Preakness. They announced today that Frank Stronach wants to take him to the Canadian Triple Crown instead of to Baltimore. I don't like this decision, but I don't own the horse. In any event, without the Rocker, Big Brown could regress 10 lengths and still win on Saturday. I will wait until PP's come out to post some final thoughts, but I will say now that it will be very hard for anyone to upset the favorite now.