Kentucky Derby Day!

It's almost here! We have a great day of racing on Friday at Churchill, and then it's on to the biggest day of racing in the country...Kentucky Derby Day! get those Mint Juleps ready, get a fancy hat for your lady friend (or yourself), and get ready for some serious racing action!

I'm not as keen on the Churchill undercard on Saturday as I was on Friday, so I am going to skip right to the Derby. I will go through the horses in groups, starting with the tosses...

Immediate Tosses

Tale of Ekati (#2) - I've never really been a big fan of this horse. His best race to date was a win last year in a 7f G2, and I think he is better suited to those shorter distances.

Anak Nakal (#3) - Simply put, this horse has no business being in the Derby. He's never run a race remotely close to what he will need to finish top 5 in the Derby.

Big Truck (#7) - This horse's big win came in the Tampa Bay Derby when War Pass inexplicably finished dead last. I don't think he is fast enough to compete with the top ones in here.

Bob Black Jack (#13) - A lot of people like this horse, but I think he will serve merely as a pacesetter on Saturday. He ran a wickedly fast 6f race in the Sunshine Millions and I think his bread will be buttered in sprints.

Adriano (#15) - Before he won the Lanes End on synthetic, trainer Graham Motion said that even if he won that race they probably wouldn't go to the Derby because he doesn't act like a horse that will like dirt. Funny how things change when you have the chance to run in the Derby. I don't think he wants any parts of the dirt.

Cowboy Cal (#17) - Same comment as with Adriano. His lobe dirt race was horrid and he seems like a turf/synthetic runner to me.

Grudging Tosses

Court Vision (#4) - It's a tale of two horses here. First you have the Court Vision on paper, the one that couldn't close into the wickedly fast pace in the Wood Memorial. On the flip side, there is the Court Vision that has worked sensationally at Churchill the last few weeks. This horse has become a wise-guy pick, especially for those big Bill Mott fans. I may use him on the bottom of some tickets, but I just can't overlook his inability to close into tepidly slow paces.

Eight Belles (#5) - We've got a filly in the Derby! On paper she is just as fast as any colt not named Big Brown, and I know some people that think she could win it all. However, I am not sure she is prepared for the Derby. Her two graded wins were in fields of 4 and 6, and in both races she got to track very slow paces. She's gonna be facing 19 colts and will not get a dream trip, and I am not sure she will be able to handle that.

Z Fortune (#6) - I actually like this horse a lot, and have a future on him at 37/1. He ran great last time out in the Arkansas Derby. My concerns, however, are that that was a mere three weeks ago, and that he always seems to carve out a wide trip. Trainer Steve Asmussen doesn't even seem all that confident that he can recover from his race only three weeks ago. I like him moving forward, but am not sure the Derby will be his spot to shine.

Visionaire (#8) - Throw out this horse's win in the fog and rain at Aqueduct in the Gotham and you wouldn't have much to look at. And because that race occurred in such weird conditions, it is somewhat hard to rely upon. I also have questions about his breeding and if he wants the Derby distance.

Pyro (#9) - One of the favorites coming into the year, Pyro simply hasn't done all that much in order to maintain that status. Don't get me wrong, he won easy in his two races to start the year, but those were with very slow times. His debacle on the synthetic surface in the Blue Grass could be too bad to be true, but I have heard from a few people that something may not be right with this horse. He is the first one on this list that could definitely burn me, but you can't play them all LOL

Smooth Air (#12) - Well, this horse came the closest of anyone to beating Big Brown. The bad news is that he was five lengths behind him. I would have had this horse in my plays, but I dont feel comfortable with him spiking a fever during the weekend before Derby week. Not the best way to come into the Derby.

Monba (#14) - Despite my loyalty to jockey Ramon Dominguez (I watched him at Delaware Park while growing up), I simply don't think this horse has what it takes to run top 3 on Derby Day. His big win came on the synthetics in the Bluegrass, and his workouts this week have not been encouraging.

Gayego (#19) - This is a very, very grudging toss. His run in the Arkansas Derby was really, really good, maybe the second best race of any Derby contender this year. That being said, it may have been too fast only three weeks before the Derby. According to some o fthe Churchill clockers, he has been training like a tired horse, and breaking from the 19 post will be hard enough as is.

Horses for Exotics

Cool Coal Man (#1) - I've been a fan of this horse for a while, and have a future on him at 80/1. Most people will toss him on Derby Day, but I think he has a chance to sneak into the money. The #1 post position isn't desirable in this race, as commont hought goes, but it should be noted that Cool Coal Man has won three races from the #1 post. With most of the speed way outside, I think this horse could get a nice stalking trip on the rail, and could fill out an exacta or trifecta at big odds.

Colonel John (#10) - The probable second betting choice in the race, Colonel John has been winning all of the big races on the synthetic tracks in California. My concerns about him handling the dirt were somewhat dispelled by his very nice works over it, but the factor of dirt kickback in his face will be something he has never encountered before. At his probable 4/1 odds I think he is not a good betting proposition, but he must be used in exotics because he has a tremendous amount of talent.

Z Humor (#11) - This horse will be one of the longest shots in the race, but I just have a funny feeling that he may put in a good run for 2nd or 3rd. After a promising 2yo year he's been somewhat mishandled by his connections, but he put in a decent run last time out in the Illinois Derby. His breeding suggests he will like the distance and will be a late bloomer, so at probable 50/1 odds I will have him in my bets.

Denis of Cork (#16) - Undefeated through his first three starts, this horse ran an awesome one in the Southwest. However, his connections seemed to freak out after that race and couldn't figure out what to do with him. So he ended up running seven weeks later in the Illinois Derby, and simply didn't fire. He was the last horse to draw into the Derby, and according to all reports he has looked incredible all week training over the Churchill strip, a surface that he has already won a race on. Calvin Borel rides him and will be looking for a repeat of last year's win on Street Sense. I think Denis of Cork has a great chance to win at a huge price.

Recapturetheglory (#18) - Many people are writing his Illinois Derby victory off as a fluke on a speed-favoring track. And it certainly may be that. However, they did the same thing with War Emblem in 2001 and he won at 20/1. This horse might even be bigger odds than that. A concern is that he will see a much faster pace than he is used to in the Derby, and he also has a bad post. He could easily finish really poorly, but if he runs well, people will be wondering why they didn't use him.

The Winner

Big Brown (#20) - I simply can't watch this horse's Florida Derby and pick any other horse in the race to win. He is without a doubt the most talented horse in what is a very subpar group of 3yo's. The arguments against him are that he doesn't have enough of a foundation to win in the Derby, and obviously his 20 post. Regarding the first concern, I think the fact that he has had five weeks rest from his Florida Derby will come in huge. That is a lot of rest, and indications are that he is ready to run another huge race. The outside post is obviously a concern, but he has such tactical speed that he should be over to get over and not lose too much ground going into the first turn. I think he will overcome all the obstacles and win the Derby on Saturday!

Plays with a hypothetical $100 bankroll:

$5 Exacta Big Brown (20) with Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) $25 Total
$5 Exacta Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) with Big Brown (20) $25 Total
$1 Trifecta Big Brown with Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) with Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) $20 total
$1 Trifecta Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) with Cool Coal Man (1), Colonel John (10), Z Humor (11), Denis of Cork (16), Recapturetheglory (18) with Big Brown (20) $20 Total
$10 Win Denis of Cork $10 Total

Good luck everyone!