Can Big Brown Outdo Curlin?

Can Big Brown, the undefeated colt almost certain to go off the favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby, accomplish something reigning Horse of the Year Curlin could not last year, winning the Run for the Roses off just three lifetime starts?

Was it coincidence or fate that they delivered the two most dazzling performances of the year - really of many years - half a world away but just hours apart March 29th?

First Curlin, handled brilliantly by Steve Asmussen, the leading trainer in the country in both victories and earnings, rolled to a powerful victory in the $6 million Dubai World Cup by 7 ½ lengths, a record winning margin. Asmussen broke tradition by sending Curlin to Dubai several weeks before the World Cup so he could not only acclimate but also have a useful prep race over the track, which he won by 2 ¼ lengths. The way Curlin responded in the World Cup proved that he is the best horse in the world with eight victories, one second and two thirds in 11 career starts.

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of the four-year-old colt’s accomplishments is that he made his career debut on February 3rd, 2007, winning a maiden race by 12 ¾ lengths. He then won both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby easily before finishing third by eighth lengths to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby, only his fourth lifetime start. Subsequent victories in the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic clinched his Horse of the Year title.

But if a horse as brilliant as Curlin couldn’t win the demanding, mile-and-a-quarter, 20-horse deep Kentucky Derby off three lifetime starts, can Big Brown?

If you hadn’t heard of Big Brown before the Florida Derby, you had plenty of company. The colt had only made two starts in his life.

Last September 3rd at Saratoga, Big Brown made his debut in a mile-and-a-sixteenth maiden turf race for trainer Pat Reynolds. Sent off at 14-1 from the rail, he took the early lead and stretched it out to 11 ¼ lengths under jockey Jeremy Rose.

A turf route race is a difficult debut for any horse, but Big Brown was obviously not any horse. He was sold after his spectacular debut and transferred to trainer Richard Dutrow’s barn. Subsequently, Dutrow had to treat Big Brown’s quarter cracks on two different feet before he could enter him for his three-year-old debut, which wound up a turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park March 5th. But that race was taken off the grass and run on dirt. Sent off the 6-5 favorite, Big Brown settled comfortably in third under his new jockey, Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux, then exploded to the lead and drew off, winning his first dirt start by 12 ¾ lengths by completing one mile in a fast 1:35 3/5, producing a lofty 104 Beyer Speed Figure.

Had that race not been taken off the turf, it’s highly unlikely that Dutrow would have him run him in the Florida Derby March 29th.

But he did, and when Big Brown drew the outside 12 post, his connections had to be concerned. Since Gulfstream Park was reconfigured three years ago, not a single horse had won a mile-and-an-eighth race from that post position.

Dutrow was unfazed, and he decided to skip his trip to Dubai for the undercard of the World Cup to saddle Big Brown in the Florida Derby. So Dutrow watched on TV as his two horses, Diamond Stripes and Benny the Bull, both won their races in Dubai worth a combined $3 million in purses.

Yet his day was only going to get better. In the Florida Derby, Big Brown was simply astonishing as the 3-2 favorite. Forced five to six-wide on the first turn, he nonetheless cruised to the lead, set excruciating early fractions and drew off, winning by five lengths in 1:48, barely missing the track record. It’s worth noting, too, that second-place finisher Smooth Air was 7 ½ lengths clear of Tomcito in third. When a field is strung out with large margins separating not only the winner, but the horse in second or third, too, it’s an even more impressive accomplishment by the horse who won.

It would be foolish to believe that the Florida Derby will be Big Brown’s last impressive accomplishment. Yet that alone does not mean he will win the Kentucky Derby May 3rd.

Unlike Curlin, one of Big Brown’s three races came as a two-year-old in a route race, even though it was on grass. Curlin’s first race was a seven-furlong sprint. The route rate at two may have provided Big Brown a better pre-Kentucky Derby foundation that Curlin, but Curlin continued to improve as he went through the Triple Crown and went on to be Horse of the Year. Whether Big Brown can do the same is pure conjecture, but it sure is fun to think about. And what if the two of them hook up in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic? Wouldn’t that be something?

We’ll find out more on the first Saturday of May. Big Brown’s emergence has created an exciting buzz to what annually is America’s greatest race.