Horse Racing Fantasy Community

So, I've been reading all the threads pertaining to the Breeders' Cup finals. I just want to first state that I'm not here to argue. I'm just here to point out a few things. Yesterday's debacle with the player being upset that his horse didn't win in a final caused all types of outrage in the community. Even though that's really not what I want to talk about, it is what motivated me to write this post.

There are several players, and this is with no disrespect to any of them, who feel the finals are not run the same way that the regular races are run. They have used words like "bouncing" or "leveling the playing field" or "just not right". Considering all of that, let's just take a quick look at today's finals. Don't take this wrong - I have watched hundreds of finals and have seen my share of crazy outcomes, absolute head-shakers, situations where I could not believe what was going on. Then, I said to myself - hey, that's racing. I have also seen more finals where the outcome has been absolutely perfectly predictable. After all of that, I want to bring up some finals tonight.

No Fluff - The winner of that final was The Big Bang, owner Modgraphix. When I look at the horse's record, he ran four races in the tournament total, achieved three wins and a third. To me - predictable.

In The Middle - This was won by a horse called Awesome One, which by the way, was a partially-nominated horse owned by Slavedave. In this particular case, Awesome One won every single race, all four races in the tournament including the final. Perfectly predictable.

Told Ya So - The horse Sack Time, owned by Racodo, started in the tournament four times and finished with two wins and two seconds. Perfectly predictable.

Go To Mama - In this tournament, the winner Pats On The Back, owned by Cardoso, started in three races and won all three races. Perfectly predictable. Yes, he only won by a neck and it was a tough finish, but it was perfectly predictable.

Hop In - In this tournament, the winner was Snowblind. By the way, congratulations Modgraphix for your second win of the night. And congratulations to the top five horses, all separated by less than a length - so this was a great tournament. But, the horse Snowblind ran five races in the tournament, had three wins and two seconds. Perfectly predictable. Yes, it was a close race, but perfectly predictable.

More BS - In this race, the horse Topscouse, who is owned by Topscouse (nice name there), ran a great race and prior to his win in the final, in his four other starts had his best finish being a third. Therefore, Topscouse was an upset winner, which happens all the time in real racing. The second-place horse, Iron Broom, had five starts in the tournament including a win, two seconds and two thirds, so finishing second was perfectly predictable. The third-place horse, Native Bell, in her five starts finished no worse than third, thus her final position in the tournament seems perfectly normal.

Get The Point - In this tournament, congratulations to Clifforddogs, who won the race with his horse Here Be Dragons. Here Be Dragons ran three races in the tournament, had two wins and a second. Therefore, winning the Breeders' Cup final seems absolutely perfectly predictable.

Call It Fun - In this tournament, congratulations to Kowmagik, whose horse Doctor Knows Best, won the final in a very tight finish. Doctor Knows Best in three races had a win, a second and a fourth. Though this is not perfectly predictable, it surely is far from a long-shot upset. What we have to consider here is the first four finishes of the race were all separated by a couple of heads. The second-place finisher, O So Sweet, who barely lost, in his three races had two wins and a second. Perfectly predictable.

Too The Limit - In this tournament, congratulations to Bigdog236, whose horse Gumcorner Doc raced two times prior to the Breeders' Cup final and the best he could do was a third. So, definitely not predictable but by no means an out-of-the-question result.

Go Now - Congratulations to Southcoast, who won this tournament with his baby horse called Clone Trooper. His horse raced three times in this tournament winning twice and finishing second once. Though he only won the race by a half-length, Clone Trooper was clearly one of the top contenders. The horse who finished second, Pollen Duster, ran a very solid second, just ran out of room and couldn't close the gap. It was a great race for both of these horses. Pollen Duster, in his three starts in the Go Now tournament ended up with a win and two seconds. If this was real horse racing, that's what I would call a stone-cold exacta box and very, very predictable. The third-place horse, BTW, Sir Punisher, who had a win, a third and a fourth in the three-race tournament, easily could have figured as a contender to win it all, let alone complete the triple.

What I'm trying to say is there really something wrong with the final races? I know Mike (Puddles) has spent an absolute fortune on a new handicapping program that will be out very soon. But, I and several other people here have told him he's nuts. Every day we look at the finals and for every final that shocks us, there's at least four or five that don't. I also think, in my humble opinion, that the trainers are getting better, the competition is getting better, players are smarter today than they work nine-ten months ago in the early stages of the trainer game. Savvy trainers are entering their horses where they've proven successful in practice to be a contender under similar racing conditions associated with the real tournaments.

Here's my prediction. The new $25,000 handicapping program will not change the attitudes of certain players. What it will do is show more correct odds and weight assignments for the Breeders' Cup final races. And, it will also get more players involved by them becoming professional weight handicappers in our game.

This game is tough. There are, no doubt, things that can be improved, but OMG, what we have improved from the last year until today is just off the charts. I think it was Ronwar who said in a post today that favorites win about 30% of the time in real racing. That number is pretty accurate. He also said that that means favorites lose about 70% of the time. There are so many factors that go into these races, so many things that affect the outcome and cause the favorite to lose or ensure the favorite to win - that's what makes it incredibly fun, exciting and emotional,

Yes, in the next 7 to 10 days, the new handicapping program will come out. Some people will like it for the reasons I've stated, others will still complain, some will say it has made a difference for the better, and I'm sure others will say it has made a difference for the worse, and still others will say it has made no difference at all. I guess what I'm really saying is that it really isn't going to change anything. Just my humble opinion from a guy that sits on the sidelines - and you know what they say about 'armchair quarterbacks'. This is just one person's humble opinion - actually it's the opinion shared by several of us here and I really do feel bad for my friend and boss who only has one objective in mind - build the best horse racing game in the world. He's been smashed so hard for all the wrong reasons, it's actually quite sad.

Twinberry73