Finding Hidden Value on the 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail

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Poll

Can Rachel Alexandra still beat Zenyatta for Horse of the Year in 2010?

Absolutely - if Rachel and Zenyatta face off in the Breeders' Cup and Rachel wins decisively, she will grabe that honor.

13%

It's still too early in the racing season and anything can happen. We need to take a wait-and-see attitude.

14%

No way - Zenyatta has done everything and more. She is a world class champion and has already locked up that honor.

36%

It's horse racing and anything is possible, but the odds at this point are big-time in favor of Zenyatta.

36%

Total votes: 85

Finding Hidden Value on the 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail

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Thu, 03/04/2010 - 10:12pm · puddles

Is there Hidden Value on the 2010 Derby Trail. Yes there is . The only question is where do you find it?
If you’re a racing fanatic like me, you’ve probably heard all about some of the current leading contenders on this year’s Derby trail. You know, horses like Lookin’ At Lucky, Conveyance, and Eskendereya. Let’s set aside those household names on the road to the roses for a moment and focus on some of the lesser-known Derby possibilities. After all, who thought Mine That Bird would win the garland of roses back in early March of last year? Sure, some of these longshots might be pretenders. But if you back one of these horses this early in the game, you’ll have bragging rights if they wow the crowd on the first Saturday in May!
D’Funnybone – This Dutrow trainee won his last start in the Hutcheson Stakes (G. 2) on February 20th and is being pointed towards the Florida Derby (G. 1) on March 20th. If he manages to win that key prep, rest assured he’ll advance on everyone’s list of Derby hopefuls.
Peppi Knows – This grandson of A.P. Indy won his last start in the Whirlaway and is entered in the Gotham (G. 3) on March 6th. We’ll have to keep an eye on this one and see how he performs on Saturday.
Discreetly Mine – This Mineshaft colt looks like he could have what it takes following his win in the Risen Star Stakes (G. 2) at Fair Grounds. He was entered in that race with only one maiden special weight victory on his resume. Discreetly Mine seems to have overcome his case of seconditis, which plagued him in the Futurity (G. 2) and Champagne (G. 2). It looks like Todd Pletcher is keeping him at Fair Grounds for a start in the Louisiana Derby (G. 2) later this month.
Lentenor – He’s not on the top of too many lists (unless you include big time Barbaro fans), but Michael Matz was pleased with his last start in an allowance race at Gulfstream. There’s a possibility this full brother to Barbaro could make his next appearance in the Florida Derby (G. 2), where a well-placed finish would earn him much respect and an exciting storyline as well.
Do any of those horses look like Derby champs to you? We haven’t travelled too far down the Derby trail to have much confidence yet, but don’t be surprised if one of these horses becomes a headliner in May!

puddles's blog
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Comments

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 12:48am — soundofrum

Buddy's Saint

Forget about his poor showing in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes. Buddy's Saint lost all chance going into the clubhouse turn when he was bounced around repeatedly by one or two horses that came over on him. Almost got pushed into the rail. Lucky he didn't lose his rider, or fall.
He never did recover sufficiently to become a threat. Toss this race and look for good odds in is next outing. Betters who don't know what happened, will think he's not that good. That would be a huge mistake. I predict he'll be a key player for the Triple Crown races.
You also gotta like, Bob Baffert's, Looking At Lucky. Nice second in the 2009 Breeders Cup Juvenial.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 8:54pm — dabster

Run For The Roses.

Dabster: Dear Puddles, with regard to your search for value, I have recently witnessed one of the trial races at Meydan. My principle interest in these races is to get an angle on Godolphin's potential 'European Classic' aspirants. However, Vale Of York, last years 'Breeders Cup Juvenile', winner took part. In an admittadly slowly run affair, one could not fail to be impressed with the way Mendip quickened away from a bunching field. Vale Of York, having been prominent, stayed on to be a onepaced 4'th. I'm not familiar with Vale Of York's usual racing style, but he looked pretty straight beforehand. As for Mendip, prior to this on his only other start, he bolted up in a little 'egg and spoon race' at Wolverhampton, a small provincial track in England. He was both coltish and immature in the paddock and on the way down, and was 'blanketed' for stalls entry, and he ran very green. In comparison in Meydan he looked much more the finished article both in the preliminaries and during the race. Now, I don't even know if this colt even holds an entry or if there is a supplimentary entry option for the 'Derby' but as it's still only early days this could be researched, if he has an entry Godolphin were not entertaining an angel unawairs! He has won on both Polytrack and Tapeta, so Dirt should be within his compass. This is the angle, His Highness, Sheikh Mohammed bin rashid Al Maktoum has stated publicly that the two most prestigious international races 'Godolphin' most desire to win are 'The Melbourne Cup' and the 'Kentucky Derby'. Secondly Dettori, the stable jockey, chose Mendip from 4 Godolphin runners in the race. In my opinion this colt needs more experience, so the bet is this: If Mendip wins in style on his next start its Win, Place, and Show to small stakes for 'The Derby'. If he gets beat the bet is the same but on what beats him. Much Respect 'The Dabster.' Lorcan. p.s. over here in 'Merrie Olde England,' Win, Place and Show is an 'Each Way' bet.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 4:49pm — dabster

Mendip

Dabster: Dear Puddles, you've got me at it now! Mendip has a 'Triple Crown' nomination! This colt has always been in Godolphin ownership, it's not like one of the many high class animals Godolphin purchase from other owners, where the nominations are already in place. From 1000's of Godolphin horses world wide they nominate this? after it's Wolverhampton run it was rated 84. Vale of York is rated 116 . As I'm writing this I've checked out the Godolphin website, Mendip is unbeaten in 3 starts, the other also at Meydan. If you accept that Vale of York ran fresh and pulled two hard, using collateral lines taken from the others that finished close up to Vale of York,(who in fact finished 5th and not 4th as I stated prior,) you have to rate Mendip at 114+. His next start is in the U.A.E Derby the race Godolphin initiated for assesing their Kentucky Derby aspirants. It's run on World Cup night so you may be able to judge for your self. On a totally different subject have you considered approaching Godolphin for sponsorship of your great game? In this country Sheikh Mohammed purchased the 'Racing Post', the last remaining trade paper, to save it from closure. They are most innovative and have a true love of all things equine. With Much Respect, The Dabster. Lorcan.