Horse Racing Fantasy Community

There has been much discussion on this forum about the weight and odds in the final not being accurate.
If you have a great horse in the final such as, Lord Outstanding (used as example only) all things considered, he should carry the highest weight. Say 128 to 130 pounds, with the others carrying less. Not that much less if they too are great and have finished close to, Lord Oustanding. The difference might be a few pounds. Now if you barely made the final and are no where close to being of, Lord Outstandings class or ability. Possibly an assignmen of 110 would be correct. Maybe even less. This is where good handcappers and odds makers come into play.
Now, if you, as a expert handicapper, thought, Lord Outstanding is the best in race, thus assigning him the most weight, then you must also consider him the favorite. IMO
Following is an example of what's been happening in finals for about a year, and the reason for HRF asking for volunteer handicappers (weight and odds makers)and getting things back on track.
Ok, how would you like to see, Lord Outstanding carring 110 pounds and have odds of 10-1 and a horse that never, or seldom wins, but some how a miracle gets him/her to the final as the 4/5 favorite carrying 128 pounds, or thereabouts.
This is where the concern comes into play and the reason for a big change coming soon in the new client release.
I could use many examples. Perhaps some better than others. But this is the kind of stuff that has been driving many long time trainers nuts.
One complaint that I have and have spoken of often, is that many of my horses that make it to the final, but haven't won a prelim tournament race will be listed as the favorite over a horse that won every prelim. My horses speed ratings were quite low. Their horses speed ratings were quite high. And the weight assignments for the looser are often higher than th weight assignments for consistent winners.
In short, this is what's been happening and has upset so many trainers, who have been screaming for change. Apparently, from what, puddles has said (more than once) we will see a big change for the better. One that hopefully will satisfy the majority. No matter what HRF does, you're not ever going to please all. I like the fact that they listen to us and make changes when appropriate. I'm looking forward to the new client when it is released.
In ending, I'd like to acknowledge the fact that we have a lot of good handciappers here among our community members and I feel that their involvment in the final will be a big improvement. I for one think everyone will appreciate what they will be doing behind the scene to get the weight and odds more realistic.

Throughout the history of thoroughbred horse racing in America the better horses have always been asked to carry more weight than the lesser horses. This is supposed to level out the playing field. Our game is trying to do the same thing. I don't see anything wrong with that.
Over the years, I've heard more complaints from trainers and owners about their horses carrying too much weight, more so than complaining about the lesser class horses getting in at, say, 110 pounds.

I agree with you Dabster on this, pretty much a watering down of the game, you can see how this will end up just by the person posting and saying LO 130 and other horses 110 or LESS, this is the thinking of some people who are looking at this the wrong way, i hope this is not the case, padding weights like that in finals will be the mirror image of what's going on in finals right now. I hope HRF give a guideline on how to do this, i remember Mike saying if there's people over doing it they will be removed and i hope that still stands.

sundown

Dabster : What is the weight range for the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Preakness Stakes, and The Breeders Cup Championship Races. The first three are restricted to 3yo therefore run at level weights with the sex allowance concession. The others are weight for age races with age and sex allowance concessions. The best horse on the day wins, as it should be, they are not handicapped to finish level are they? Of course not, they're not handicaps! It is what it says on the tin, championship races. This is universal around the world the best horses compete at level weights, end of story. All handicap ratings which are allotted to horses are given in retrospect, to do this prior to them performing would require necromancy! To penalise a horse already participating in a series of preordained races, for its performance in a prior race contained within the series, before competing in the final is totally unjustified and most unfair. If in this game, as I understand it, the skill factor is in running your charges under optimum conditions, selected by distance, going, surface, track, time of year, trainer and jockey instructions. Every participant in this game has an even chance at the outset, how he/she avails themselves to the information available is down to them, if they get it wrong and the next guy is spot on that's how it is, is it right that a 'handicapper' levels things out to take into account a lack of judgement or a flash of inspiration, most unfair, and as we English say, 'Just not cricket'. Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.

Dabster : But please don't include me. I don't play poker as I'm a poor judge of a hand. Did the people I played lessen their game to allow for my lack of skill, most certainly not! A friend of mine who started playing at the same time, and was a far worse player than I, still plays twice a week and does his dough every time. Yes he has lucky streaks, but these soon end and by the end of the session he's whipped out. This doe's not bother him as he really enjoys the game, It's his choice, he has the same chance at the outset as the other players, but skill and ability prevail over time, this is life in general, not just poker, so why make this game any different? In horse race reality, the best trainers, jockeys, and horses, over time show them selves, is this game not intended to mirror this? Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.

Dabster : Please consider this, I've just qualified 2 horses for finals. The first winning it's qualifier over 6F, coming late, leading close home going away near the finish. The second winning it's qualifier over 5F, lead early, clear 2F out, held on. I don't hold out much hope for either in the finals. Whys that I hear. Answer, both finals will be run over 5.5F, the fist won't get there soon enough, the second will weaken close home. Now will these be shock results, I think not! However if you look at the 'bare' form both these look hot favourites, as they both won by at least 2 lengths, but as you should know this is only half the picture. Now Iv'e been witness to 2 pretty extreme outbursts about the honesty and integrity of the programmers/owner. If the result of the finals go the way I expect, but not the way they appear on 'paper' do I throw all the toys out of my pram to get things to go my way later? Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.

What should HRF do to make the finals the way you want them to be? Would the Jockey Club Scale of weights do? Do female weight adjustments do? Are they fair? Do they work???
I hear a lot of in between stuff,(actually some makes sense) but no real solutions. Like I said, I have an open mind. Convince me that your way is the best way. Convince me that HRF's way is the worst way? Where are the other ideas? Where are the solutions? You may have a legitiment(sp) complaint, but, I don't see your solutions. Do you have any???? If so, where are they.
And btw, forget about zeroing in on the number 110. It means nothing. Just an arbitrary figure. I just through a number out there as part of a hypothetical situation. Let's change that weight number now, to 120 and , Lord Outstanding's weight to 126. Are you happy now. Again, offer your solutions. I don't see any. I'm still waiting.

Quoting, Dabster :::::::::::::

<<< All that needs to be one is apply the relevant weight as prescribed in the tables, deduct the sex allowance if required and you have framed an Internationally Accepted weight for age conditions race. Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.>>>

Thank you, Dabster. You have a concern. You offer your solution. I admire you for that. This sounds like a good idea and I'm open to your suggestions/solutions. Thank You.

Quoting, Dabster::::::

<<< and the first thing you do is question the validity of the sex allowance, not exactly filling me with confidence you know. >>>

Pal, I'm not trying to fill you with confidence in anything. In fact, I complimented you. If you are in fact, bipolar, as you say, then possible this passed you by. Never quite sure where you're coming from.You're all over the map. Actually you're not worth my time anymore. Nice knowing you for a short while. Time to move on. Bye.

The weight are worse now than they were before the "fix". Sure there is not as much of a drastic difference, the problem now is horses carrying 96 pounds all the time. The only way this will help is that instead of carrying 95-112, horses will hopefully carry 115- 130. Clearly these horses have a threshold where they run some much faster carrying 96 pounds. This new "fix" hrf thinks will cure the finals may or may not happen. The bottom line is there is something wrong with the finals. My problem with the finals are not that the horse who dominated the prelims does not win but the finish last or close to it MOST of the time, why? Very good horses finish poorly ALL the time in the finals, but RARELY finishes last in pre lims, why?

Dabster : Well it's a funny old world isn't it, I agree that my knowledge of this game is extremely limited, but when it comes to 'real' horseraceing I have some awareness. All I wanted was an overview as to how and why the finals were to be handicapped. I expressed my opinion, and that's all handicapping is, an individuals deemed conclusion after the study and evaluation of available data, in this case 'virtual horserace form, which supposedly mirrors 'reality' horserace form, by use of method of choice, in my case I would apply weight for age tables, a set sex allowance, and a weight allowance per distance travelled, distance beaten by or successful by, time of year of data posted, expressed in imperial pounds received by or conceded by each individual, expressed as a figure. The only other method I am aware of is based on time, with a weight given per part second beaten using the same criteria of weight per age per distance per time of year posted and again expressed as a figure. The strange thing was that I was asked for my opinion, which I freely offered, received no counter opinion or explanation as to how the finals were to be handicapped, just a very childish reference to my illness which I have to endure, but try to make light of. Am I any more informed than my first response to this 'blog', not one bit! Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.

Dabster : The worst of it is the intensity, I know the whole thing is just 'trivia', but once I get going it becomes all consuming and far more important than life or death. I just wish these unanswered 'blogs' weren't posted. The original guy posed the question, which obviously has no answer. If the means by which the finals are to be decided was expressed, then you have been given the choice to participate or not. I was quite happy with the way it was, mainly because I had no idea as to how it was determined and so needed no explanation and excepted the outcome without concern. Now I know it's going to be different, Iv'e been told so, now you've got me, is it going to be better or worse, is it being done manually, doe's it matter, of course not! I know that, but to change without explanation as to how, I just can't bear not knowing, when I was a child I was told not to look at the sun........... Yours In Sport With Much Respect Dabster.

I think scale weights would be just fine in the finals, but thats just my opinion, and i'm sure will never happen.

No problem...I agree, hopefully the new client, and changing the platform along with the handicapping will fix it.

Dabster :'Handicapping' is the means by which any number of horses of differing abilities are assessed and evaluated by use of an approved set of criteria which when applied results in a rating given to each horse which is expressed by 'weight' to be carried. A 'Handicappers' dream is to, after assessment, run a 20 runner 'handicap' the result being a complete dead heat of 20! You'r not trying to do this are you? A way of getting more 'true' results with less 'shock' outcomes to the finals, is what you'r after, yes? That is most commendable and of benefit to all who try to get an 'edge' by ensuring their entries run under optimum conditions. IT IS NOT HANDICAPPING now is it. Now I think you are going to have your work cut out, because as I stated earlier, the finals are run over a different distance and track than most of the qualifiers, therefore contributing hugely to the possibility of a seemingly 'shock' result. In England the tracks differ, in some cases to such a degree, that course and distance form is considered to be of the upmost importance when assessing the 'probable' outcome of a selected race. A 75% success rate is what my Father aims for, he assesses 1000's of races a year, and places a bet on about 20. You however, have no choice than to assess all finals run, a thankless task! I wish you luck, but do not envy your monumental undertaking. If I can be of any assistance please do not hesitate to ask. Yours In Sport With Much Regard Dabster.

I'm not sure, but I do not think scale weights in the real world translate the same way in the virtual world.

In the real world, I believe generally that male horses are considered stronger than female horses and an older horse stronger than a three year old. Thus they get a break in the weights. In the virtual world, this difference does not exist. A horse is a horse. It is my opinion that the breeders cup races and all races for that matter should be ran at equal weights. Then if you want to add the human touch, let a few members assign more accurate odds in the final. Let post position, racing luck, jockey strategy, and horse traits do the rest. If LO is the fastest horse in the game and has great courage and consistency, so be it. If the horse should lose, let it be because she was stuck behind a wall of horses or had to go 4 wide on both turns. Not because I decided to spot inferior opponents 10lbs.

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May they all come home safely!!!

My apologies to, Lord Outstandings trainer, Brian. In my examples I kept referring to L.O. as being a he, when in fact, Lord Outstanding is a female.
Ron, I read your reply post and always respect your valuable insight. I think a thread could be written about weight assignments for females verse weight assignments for males. I have my own ideas. I think they're the same as yours.

I think we'll see a 'heavy' favorite carry something like 3 lbs more in a sprint, maybe 5 more in a route.

well here we are ...i guess most ppl agreed the weights needed fixing ...now i hope we are gonna have some great handicapping ....i hope now that those who have the really big giant of a horse in the respective tournament is ready to shoulder the weight ........