Horse Racing Fantasy Community

I was so impressed with Curlin yesterday, I had to write about him almost immediately after watching the race, but saved the rest of Saturday's big races for today.

The Florida Derby

As you can see, Big Brown was extremely impressive. Breaking from the impossible outside post, he had to be gunned to the lead or drop far back in order not to go too wide on the first turn. He went to the lead, went a little wide on the first turn, set blazingly fast fractions and drew away in the stretch. He switched leads almost right on cue, even after setting those fractions, so that was impressive. I'm not sure what he was doing in the stretch when he shifted lanes towards the rail. He wasn't lugging in, but he might have been a little tired or maybe he was just looking around -- it was only his third race after all. The best part about him is that he doesn't need the lead. He usually tracks the leaders and runs by them at the top of the stretch. He only used those tactics to combat the bad post draw. The more immediate goal for this colt is obviously the Kentucky Derby, but this colt looks special and since he can handle turf he should take to the Polytrack at Santa Anita. Curlin vs Big Brown in the Classic? A little early to start thinking about that, but he was very impressive.

Strength of Field: Slightly Below Average
Breeders' Cup Classic Impact: Average - I can't see any others horses in the BC, other than the winner.
Predictions:
Big Brown - Classic Contender

Dubai Golden Shaheen

Once again, US-based horses dominated the Golden Shaheen. Benny the Bull looked fantastic, winning by almost two lengths. He broke well, had no traffic trouble, waited patiently off the pace, accelerated when asked and easily went by Idiot Proof in deep stretch. It has been a while since we've seen a US-based horse win this race and come back to the states and run well, but in recent years it seems that our 2nd tier horses have been winning over there (Proud Tower Too, Kelly's Landing). Hopefully, Benny the Bull will get a break until early in the summer and won't miss a beat. He did, however, run poorly in his only start over a Synthetic course, but that was before he was trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. Idiot Proof ran really well too. He might have even pushed Benny the Bull to the limit if he had been able to stay straight late. Even watching the angle above, you can he him dive in towards the rail. They almost took him down for interference in the stretch. I saw him twice at Monmouth, and this horse is a special horse, but he doesn't seem to be at his best on Polytrack. He shouldn't have beaten a very unlucky Greg's Gold last year in the Ancient Title. He's definitely good on Polytrack, I just don't think he loves it.

Strength of Field: Well Above Average
Impact on the Breeders' Cup Sprint: Strong - Benny the Bull, Idiot Proof and Barbecue Eddie are all strong candidates for the Sprint.
Predictions:
Benny the Bull - Sprint Top 3 Contender
Idiot Proof - Sprint Top 3 Contender
Barbecue Eddie - Sprint Participant

Dubai Duty Free

Jay Peg at 39-1 (in the US) was extremely impressive in victory. He set the pace for most of the race, and kicked on again to win in track record time of 1:46.20 for the 1 1/8 miles course. I actually had the exacta in here...maybe I should be writing a handicapping blog...haha. This horse would love American turf courses. He probably won't come over, but if he did, he would be extremely tough. Second place finisher, Darjina, ran a huge race and almost ran down the winner. She has run well against the boys in the past and would certainly be a handful in the Filly & Mare Turf, or the Mile. I could see her coming over here because they have been shipping her all over the place to chase big purses. If you just watched the race, I'm sure you saw that unlucky third place finisher. Well, that was Archipenko. He had a nightmare trip in the stretch, boxed in throughout the stretch, finally getting out with about 100 yards to go and coming at the top two light a freight train. Trainer Mike de Kock rarely comes over here, so we probably won't see this improving colt in the BC.

Strength of Field: Very Strong
Impact on the BC Turf Races: Tough to say- Jay Peg probably won't come, Darjina might (Mile or F&M Turf), Archipenko probably won't, Creachadoir might (Mile - Impressive filly with a big closing kick - didn't get the trip in here), favored Literato didn't fire his best shot in here, but could come over for Godolphin (Mile).
Predictions:
Creachadoir - Mile Contender
Literato - Mile Top 3 Contender

Dubai Sheema Classic

This race was all Sun Classique. This mare beat this boys impressively. She, like Jay Peg, is trained by South African-based Mike de Kock and probably won't be coming over for the BC. Hong Kong-based Viva Pataca ran a valiant race to be second, but couldn't catch the classy mare. This was his first race outside of Japan (at least since the end of 2006), but hopefully his strong showing here encourages his connections to ship him over for the Breeders' Cup if he's still in good form come October. I wouldn't rule him out. He would be a formidable foe if he came over. He obviously ships pretty well and his late run is explosive. He would've been closer to Sun Classique if he didn't have to await room in the stretch to make his late charge. Last year's Man O' War winner, Doctor Dino, ran a great race to be third. He could certainly make the trip over, especially since he ran two races over here last year. US-based Spring House, set the pace, but faded to tenth and 2004 BC Turf winner Better Talk Now never menaced.

Strength of Field: Very Strong
Impact on the Breeders' Cup Turf races: Tough to say - Sun Classique probably won't show, Viva Pataca is an outside possibilty, Doctor Dino is an intriguing prospect, Spring House will have to return to form when he comes home to be seriously considered, Better Talk Now will probably win a weak G1 this summer and run in the Turf again and Quijano (finished 4th) who came over for the Canadian International last year is a possibility.
Predictions:
Doctor Dino - Turf Contender
Quijano - Turf Contender
Better Talk Now - Turf Contender

The Godolphin Mile

US-based Diamond Stripes and Rick Dutrow Jr. picked up a nice win here. Diamond Stripes was coming off a 4th place finish in the Sunshine Millions. The important thing about that race is that is was at Santa Anita. Dutrow believes that he was pushing Diamond Stripes limits by asking him to go 1 1/8 miles. The return to a one mile distance proved to be enough to get him the win. Godolphin's Elusive Warning ran a good second and would be a tough competitor if he came over for the Dirt Mile. He did, after all, win his first two starts at Aqueduct.

Strength of Field: Fairly Strong
Impact on the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Below Average - With Diamond Stripes showing no affinity for the Synthetic track at Santa Anita, he might not even make the trip, since he is based in New York (immediate goal is the Met Mile), and Elusive Warning hasn't race over Polytrack, so his participation is questionable.
Predictions:
Diamond Stripes - Dirt Mile Contender

Overall, the weekend was exciting and we saw the continuation and perhaps the birth of a couple superstars, in Curlin and Big Brown.

Good luck, and thanks for reading.