Jeff Lowich's Road to the Breeders' Cup Blog - Dubai World Cup

jlow0813's picture

I really hope you were able to tune in to TVG or HRTV and watch the races from Dubai. It is the richest day of racing in the world and, once again, each race was filled with Thoroughbreds of the highest class.

Today, I'll just be writing about the World Cup. I'll do the Florida Derby, Dubai turf races and sprint tomorrow.

Going into the race, Curlin was obviously the big favorite. The only knock against him, or the only perceived knock against him, was his outside post. However, as I mentioned in response to a comment on my first entry, I didn't consider the post position to be a problem. Curlin likes to be outside of horses - the Breeders' Cup Classic is a good example of his affinity for that kind of trip. Plus, because of the triangular shape of Nad al Sheba, there is a three furlong run to the first turn. The only way Curlin was going to go more than three wide into the first turn would be if there was a mad dash for the early lead, which it didn't look like there was going to be.

Curlin sat right off the pace setter, Well Armed, and Asiatic Boy for the majority of the race. He moved with them around the far turn, and responded nicely when asked by Robby Albarado, winning by almost 8 lengths. He never experienced a hint of trouble and wasn't severely challenged, despite the fact that this was an extremely talented field.

Now the question for Curlin is, what's next? I think they'll probably give him some time off and try to avoid the Dubai ---> US bounce. Most horses really have a tough time with the trip back. However, Curling might be a different story, and here's why. Curlin has been over there for a couple months already. Most horses who go over for the World Cup, fly in a week before and fly back a week or two later. Curlin will have almost three months between flights, and this could help him retain his form when he comes back. The final question looming over Curlin is Polytrack. He has never raced over anything other than dirt, and with the Breeders' Cup being held at Santa Anita this year (and next year), it's a question that will have to be answered soon. Asmussen knows this, though. I'm sure he'll have him out on the West Coast and will probably give him a race over the surface prior to the BC. So the good news is, we probably won't have to go into the Classic guessing whether he's going to like the surface or not.

One horse who I was really impressed with is Asiatic Boy. This horse's style is just begging to be given a shot in the US. He's got good tactical speed and enough staying power to make an impact over here if he were ever to venture over. Well Armed ran well to be third and could make some noise back on the West Coast this summer, since he handles Polytrack very nicely.


Summary:
Curlin beats a talented field in the world's richest horse race. He's a true superstar, and all racing fans should be happy that he's still racing as a 4-year-old. He might be the horse we've been waiting for. A horse that casual fans can follow. A horse that can rejuvenate this sport. He is now 3rd in lifetime earnings, behind Cigar and Skip Away. If Curlin finishes the year out, he'll have little trouble passing up those two Champions. Now, the only question remaining is, can he handle Polytrack?

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss the rest of Saturday's big races.

Good Luck, and thanks for reading.

Comments

gullsea53's picture

Polytrack?

I think it is really stupid that the BC is going to be run on a synthetic surface. I know I won't be betting on the races.

jlow0813's picture

Yep...

I couldn't agree more. I'll be much more careful with my money, which is one of the purposes of this blog...to help us point out good and bad plays according to form on that surface.

The worst part is, the Breeders' Cup (the company), most of whom I know very well from working with them at Monmouth, decided to award the event to Santa Anita two years in a row. It's crazy. Especially after all of the problems they had with their surface this winter.

clicksloud's picture

Nice insight

Hey Jeff. Thanks for the post! There's no way I'd be able to keep up with all the races, let alone be able to analyze the implications of each. Appreciate your thorough conclusions...I'm definitely interested to see how Curlin handles the trip back to the U.S. and his subsequent races.

traxles76's picture

I don't know about Curlin, but I'll tell you one thing:

My cab can handle polytrack!

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