Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Last time we covered most of the East Coast, Midwest and Dubai contenders. Today, I'll be looking at the California contingent and see if we can find a West Coast Derby winner. I'll also go over some of the other East Coast horses I didn't cover last time.

Pioneer of the Nile

Pioneer of the Nile is certainly considered to be the top Derby contender coming out of the California prep races. He hasn't been beaten since finishing fifth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In his three-year-old debut, he won the Robert Lewis in impressive fashion over two subsequent Derby prep winners, Papa Clem and I Want Revenge. He has shown that he can either sit just off the pace, or come from way behind to win; however, in the races where he is close to the pace, the tempo is usually pretty slow. I expect him to be coming from fairly far out of it in the Derby due to the quick expected pace. This colt is a real grinder, who possesses an inexorable stretch run. My only problem with him is that he's never run on conventional dirt before. His sire is 2003 Kentucky Derby favorite Empire Maker, but he's out of a Lord at War mare, and he tends to be a turf influence... however, it must be noted that 2001 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem, was also out of a Lord at War mare.

This colt must be respected in the Derby, but I can't recommend taking a fairly short price on a horse who has never competed on dirt before.

Chocolate Candy

Chocolate Candy can be seen in the above video finishing a good second to Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, which was kind of a strange race. Both of the speed horses in the Santa Anita Derby scratched on the morning of the race, which meant that Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy would be left with no pace to run at. As the two horses began their moves, Pioneer got the jump on Chocolate Candy, leaving the son of Candy Ride with too much to do in the stretch.

Much like the Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy has never raced on conventional dirt, but he has raced at Golden Gate, which has Michael Dickinson's Tapeta surface -- a little closer to dirt than other synthetic surfaces. His two races over that strip were encouraging, and his price will be twice as high as Pioneer of the Nile's, so I'm a little more inclined to take a shot with this one.

Regal Ransom

Regal Ransom went straight to the front and held off the charge of odds-on favorite Desert Party in the UAE Derby. He did it with the help of a severe speed bias, though. It was a fairly impressive win either way, though. His is by Distorted Humor, who also sired Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. The bottom side of this colt's pedigree is all turf, being out of a Red Ransom mare. He probably won't find himself on an uncontested lead in the Derby, so he might have a rough time of it come May 2nd. The general consensus is that Godolphin's best shot to win this year's Derby is with his stablemate, and I would have to agree.

Hold Me Back

Hold Me Back is another colt with a fantastic pedigree. He's by the versatile Giant's Causeway, out of an Unbridled's Song mare. This colt has a furious closing kick, that he utilized to win the Lane's End at Turfway. Last time out, he had a tough trip, and was hampered by a pretty slow pace up front. He made a big move, but wound up finishing second behind General Quarters. This colt has two major obstacles at this point. One, is that he's a dead late closer, who will have to try to navigate a good trip in a huge field in the Derby. The second problem is that he has five career races, with his only sub-par showing coming on the dirt. His other four races were all great, but they all came on synthetic surfaces. His lone dirt race was in the Remsen, where Old Fashioned got away with some really slow fractions up front, so maybe it was the slow pace, and not the dirt, that held him back there. I'll probably use him underneath in exotics, just in case.

I Want Revenge

I Want Revenge was a solid contender in California this winter, but after getting beaten by Pioneer of the Nile twice, Jeff Mullins decided to send this colt East and see if this son of Stephen Got Even would move up on dirt. And, he did. After soundly thrashing a field of 8 in the Gotham, I Want Revenge ran the most memorable Derby prep of the season in the Wood Memorial. He spotted the field about four lengths at the start, made up some ground on the back stretch, encountered traffic at the top of the stretch, bullied his way through and still came on to win. It was easily the most impressive prep race this year. It would be a big surprise if this colt wasn't favored on Derby day. Can IEAH win two Kentucky Derbys in a row? That hasn't happened since 1972-73 when Meadow Stable's Riva Ridge and Secretariat won their respective Derbys.

This colt should have plenty of pace to run at in the Derby, and he can certainly overcome trouble, but did he peak too soon? Jeff Mullins in a great horseman, but at a short price, I might be inclined to take a shot against him.

Papa Clem

Papa Clem, like I Want Revenge, is another West Coast contender who shipped east to test his skills on conventional dirt. In his first try on dirt, he ran a good second in the slop, finishing over seven lengths behind Friesan Fire. Papa Clem caught a fast track in the Arkansas Derby, though, and ended up getting by favored Old Fashioned in the stretch. Papa Clem had a perfect stalk-and-see trip and took advantage of Old Fashioned's tendency to finish slowly in the stretch. This colt is by Smart Strike, who is also the sire of racing's last superstar, Curlin. His dam-sire is Belong to Me, who is more of a turf influence. After analyzing Papa Clem's pedigree, I think this is a horse bred to go a mile and and eighth, but a mile and a quarter is really pushing it for him.

Quality Road

Quality Road might be the most talented contender on the Road to the Derby. He began his career by running a 101 Beyer, and horses just don't do that. It's extremely rare to see a horse debut with that kind of speed figure going six and a half furlongs. He has run the two biggest speed figures on the Derby trail this year, a 113 in his impressive Fountain of Youth victory, and a 111 in his Florida Derby win. In the Florida Derby, he sat off a pretty quick pace, overtook the leader on the turn and held off the late run of Dunkirk in the stretch. Two things should be noted in this race. The first is that Dunkirk looked like he was going to blow right by Quality Road, after Dunkirk made a big move to reach contention, but Quality Road re-broke and left Dunkirk in his dust. The second thing to note about the Florida Derby is the track bias that day. There were MULTIPLE track records set that day and the track was definitely playing in favor of inside speed. So the question is, how much of that played into Quality Road's hand that day? Was he just better than Dunkirk? Or did he ride the track bias to victory? The most recent news on Quality Road has to do with a quarter crack that he developed recently. This can be serious, or it can be inconsequential. Big Brown developed quarter cracks all the time... and they didn't affect him in the Derby, but might have in the Belmont.

His pedigree is borderline for getting a mile and quarter. He is by Elusive Quality, who also sired 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones; however, Elusive Quality is more known for getting milers. There is some stamina in the bottom side of Quality Road's pedigree, though. His dam-sire is Strawberry Road, who is a good stamina influence. His dam-dam-sire is Alydar, who finished second to Affirmed in all three 1978 Triple Crown Races.

If Quality Road's quarter crack is okay on Derby Day, he could be the horse to beat.