Horse Racing Fantasy Community

This weekend was a big one for Kentucky Derby prep races, and even though I covered Big Brown's Florida Derby win last weekend, I don't think this weekend's preps were impressive enough to make me recap any of the 3-year-old races. Colonel John was the most impressive winner in my mind, especially since his win came at Santa Anita, this site of this year's Breeders' Cup.

The Carter Handicap

The Carter was supposed to be a showdown between Donn Handicap winner Spring at Last and the unbeaten Bustin Stones. As I expected, the 7 furlong distance was too short for Spring at Last and just barely within the scope of Bustin Stones. Bustin Stones broke like a shot and went right to the lead. He was briefly headed by Executive Fleet on the backstretch, but kicked clear on the turn and dug in gamely in the stretch to win by half a length. Executive Fleet, my pick in this race, ran a big one, but wasn't quite good enough to run down the winner. Premium Wine finished a fast-closing third, but I don't expect him to be much of a factor against top class horses going 6 furlongs.

The good news for Bustin Stones is that he's probably a better horse going 6 furlongs. The bad news is that I still don't think he's going to be much of a factor in this year's Sprint. Winning the Sprint on the lead is a very difficult task, and even though this horse has shown some heart, he hasn't convinced me that he's on the level of Benny the Bull, Idiot Proof or Greg's Gold (on Synthetic).

Strength of Field: Slightly Below Average
Breeders' Cup Sprint Impact: Below Average - I can't see any of these horses in the Sprint, other than the winner.
Predictions:
Bustin Stones - Sprint Pretender

Oaklawn Handicap

This might be the race of the week, featuring a nip and tuck stretch battle between Tiago and Heatseeker. Tiago came out on top today, but he did have a perfect inside-out trip, sitting in the garden spot most of the way. Heatseeker traveled a bit wide and came about 4 wide into the stretch. He certainly ran further than Tiago and will almost definitely earn a lower sheet number than Tiago. Both horses have shown ability to handle Santa Anita's surface, so that shouldn't be a problem, and their stalking style suits the track as well. Circular Quay ran a disappointing fourth, but could bounce back. This horse either runs a monster race or disappoints. He should like the added distance of the Classic, but his inconsistency is cause for concern.

Strength of Field: Average
Breeders' Cup Sprint Impact: Average - Tiago, Heatseeker and Circular Quay could all end up in the starting gate in the Classic. Buzzards Bay and Silver Lord will have to show more.
Predictions:
Tiago - Classic Contender
Heatseeker - Classic Contender
Circular Quay - Classic Pretender

The Apple Blossom

Wow! This filly is a monster. She is unbeaten in four races and has already beaten last year's Champion in her division. Zenyatta went a little wide into the first turn, sat off a moderate pace and simply blew by the entire field in the stretch. She coasted to an easy 4 1/2 win. She looks like the one to beat in this division. Brownie Points ran a big one for second, finishing in front of Ginger Punch, but I'll need to see another big race against top competition from this one before throwing her into the Distaff picture --- by the way, I REFUSE to call the DISTAFF the Ladies' Classic because changing that name was the worst idea in the history of Breeders' Cup Management - haha. Ginger Punch ran a good race to be third, but didn't really put up much of a fight in the stretch. She set decent fractions on the lead, but they weren't fast enough to give her a valid excuse for losing this race.

Strength of Field: Average
Breeders' Cup Distaff Impact: Strong - We might have seen the Distaff's two top choices in here. Zenyatta and Ginger Punch will be in the Distaff, barring any injuries.
Predictions:
Zenyatta - Distaff TOP Contender
Ginger Punch - Distaff Top Three Contender

I'm just going to say few words about Daytona and Greg's Gold because I can't find their races on Youtube.

Daytona looked pretty good beating a fairly weak field in the Arcadia. Being a West Coast-based horse is a plus for him for the Breeders' Cup. I think he's one of those in-between-type horses, in that he's not a true miler, and he's not a true 1 1/2 miles horse. His front-running style won't do him any favors in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Very few horses have won that race on the front end. I think he could certainly end up in the starting gate of the Mile, but would be hard-pressed to win, unless he got away with an absolutely uncontested lead.

Greg's Gold continued to show his affinity for the Santa Anita racing surface in the Potrero Grande. He beat a solid field including Surf Cat and Johnny Eves. Despite going about four wide on the turn, Greg's Gold powered past the leaders and went on to win by almost two lengths. His time of 1:14.62 for the 6.5 furlong distance was extremely impressive. His stalking style should benefit him in the Sprint and I consider him a major contender for this race.

Thanks for reading, and Good Luck!