Horse Racing Fantasy Community

The Kentucky Derby

My top choice Denis of Cork ran a huge race to finish third, closing from dead last. Borel gave him a nice, rail skimming ride, and he closed like a shot at a very nice price. Finishing second was the ill-fated Eight Belles. This filly ran a monster race against the boys to be second. She would have gone on to have an amazing career, I'm sure. You just hate to see the dark side of our sport broadcast on national TV on what is arguably our biggest day.

The big success story, is obviously Big Brown. Hindsight is 20-20. When he was wandering all over the stretch in the Florida Derby, he wasn't getting tired, he was just showing some greenness. And, apparently, the addition of front wraps was just precautionary, not an indication of a problem. This powerful colt outran his pedigree and 19 of the best 3-year-olds in the country on Saturday. This horse has a huge shot to win the Triple Crown. This is a pretty weak crop of 3-year-olds. If he gets beat in the Preakness, I'll be absolutely shocked. The only chance they have to beat him is in the Belmont. He'll also be a force in the handicap division later in the year. Like I said after the Florida Derby, Curlin vs Big Brown --- sounds like fun to me.

Strength of Field: Above Average
Breeders' Cup Impact: Average - Tough to say right now. I'm sure some of these horse will end up sprinting or on the turf before the end of the year. Big Brown and Denis of Cork look like the two good ones in here...although that is a little dicey considering how much trouble horses like Pyro got into.
Predictions:
Big Brown - Classic Contender
Denis of Cork - Classic Contender

The Kentucky Oaks

My top choice in here was Bsharpsonata, who was gunned to the lead, which was a ridiculous strategy. She should have been sitting right off the lead, not setting the pace, where she ended up fading to fourth. Pure Clan closed well to be third and has run well this year. She'll have to continue improving to be considered for the Distaff. Little Belle ran a very nice race to be second. She has a very nice pedigree and should continue improving with age, being by A.P. Indy. There's still a lot of upside here.

Proud Spell, coming from the barn of Larry Jones, ran a monster race here. She absolutely crushed the field. She didn't like the Synthetic track at Keeneland last time and still managed to be third. After rating kindly from off the pace, she made a big move on the turn and pulled clear in the stretch. She was the class of this field. The only filly who could have challenged her was her stablemate, Eight Belles. I'm not sure if she's ready to deal with Zenyatta or Ginger Punch yet, but she's awfully close.

Strength of Field: Average
Breeders' Cup Impact: Average - Other than the winner, and maybe the runner up, I don't see any of these fillies being major players against their elders in the Distaff.
Predictions:
Proud Spell - Distaff Contender
Little Belle - Distaff Pretender

The Woodford Reserve

The class of this field was Einstein, and he proved it with a handy win over a decent field here. He rated nicely from a couple lengths off the pace and kicked clear in the stretch to hold off Out of Control. Unfortunately for Einstein, he is one of those in between horses. He's not at his best going 1 1/2 miles and he's not at his best going 1 mile. He likes going 1 1/8 miles. I think he's more likely to point for the Mile, though. I'm not quite sure if he's good enough to beat Kip Deville or the Europeans, though.

Strength of Field: Slightly Below Average
Breeders' Cup Impact: Below Average - The only horse I see getting to the Breeders' Cup is Einstein. It wasn't really a strong field.
Predictions:
Einstein - Mile Pretender

The Humana Distaff

This was a very strong field. Hystericalady finished second in last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff and she won this race last year. She battled with three others for the early lead, but was passed in the final strides and wound up third. She ran the best race of anyone in here. She's much more suited to the Distaff, rather than the F&M Sprint. Baroness Thatcher ran second, but I don't see her as a major player in this division.

Intangaroo ran a huge race in her first start on the dirt. She beat Hystericalady two back in the Santa Monica, as well. This race set up really well for her. A huge speed duel, and the race completely fell apart late. She loves the Synthetic track at Santa Anita, but six furlongs might be too short for her.

Surgar Swirl, Miss Macy Sue and Miraculous Miss will all come back and run well this summer sprinting on the East Coast. Watch out for them.

Strength of Field: Strong
Breeders' Cup Impact: Slightly Above Average - I can see five of these making it to the BC, in a couple different races.
Predictions:
Intangaroo - F&M Sprint Contender
Hystericalady - Distaff Contender
Sugar Swirl - F&M Sprint Contender
Miraculous Miss - F&M Sprint Pretender
Miss Macy Sue - F&M Sprint Pretender

The Louisville

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/45010.htm

The 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner returned after her defeat by Zenyatta and ran a perfect race. She sat just off some slow early fractions, made a big move and won by four. It was good to see her back to her old self after getting beaten soundly last time. She shouldn't have been put on the last last time, maybe that was the problem. A rematch with Zenyatta looks intriguing -- and let's add Proud Spell to that mix.

Lear's Princess, finished third, after a less than perfect trip. She was rushed up a little early and got shuffled back, came again and finished up okay. She's as good on turf as she is on dirt, so she has some options, but I think she'll go in the Distaff again.

Strength of Field: Slightly Below Average
Breeders' Cup Impact: Below Average - The only two horses I see getting to the Breeders' Cup are Ginger Punch and Lear's Princess. It wasn't really a strong field beyond those two.
Predictions:
Ginger Punch - Distaff Top 3 Contender
Lear's Princess - Distaff Pretender

The Aegon Turf Sprint

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/45006.htm

Mr. Nightlinger came right back and run another big one. This horse is for real, but again, he wasn't really pushed on the lead. We'll continue to watch this one, but he's definitely the early favorite for this brand new Breeders' Cup race.

Strength of Field: Slightly Below Average
Breeders' Cup Impact: Below Average - Other than the winner, I doubt any of these will make it to the BC.
Predictions:
Mr. Nightlinger - Turf Sprint Top 3 Contender

The Kentucky Stakes

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/article/44993.htm

Run Away and Hide, a son of City Zip, closed well to win the first 2-year-old stakes race of the year. This colt came from off the pace, after the speedballs got tired to win easily. This colt looks like he might win a couple more stakes races this summer, but with his sprint-oriented pedigree, there's no way he'll get 1 1/16 miles.

Strength of Field: ??????
Breeders' Cup Impact: Below Average - I doubt any of these will make it to the BC.
Predictions:
Run Away and Hide - Juvenile Pretender

Maiden Special Weight

The above video is of Mr. Mistoffelees at the Fasig Tipton sale. I couldn't find his maiden breaking video anywhere, but it was extremely impressive. His pedigree is gorgeous, his conformation is perfect and he is fast. He dominated a field of maidens at Keeneland on the lead. If he can show that he can rate, this colt could be a monster. Look out for this one.

Strength of Field: ??????
Breeders' Cup Impact: Too early to say
Predictions:
Mr. Mistoffelees - Juvenile Top 3 Contender

Whew. So many races, so little time.

Thanks for reading, and good luck.