Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Vale of York, an Irish turf horse, won the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in a solid time of 1:43 and change over the mile and 1/16th race; does that mean that he is to be thought of as a serious Kentucky Derby contender in 2010? The answer to that question is no. Juveniles that do well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile don't often go on to win the Run for the Roses, and handicappers around the nation have understood that the reasons for that lack of success are not random.
Remember War Pass, the distant descendant of Man o' War that so totally dominated the 2007 Juvenile at Monmouth? He was highly touted and presented by some as a horse to watch. But in the 2008 Kentucky Derby prep season, he was exposed as a horse that simply did not have the stamina to compete against the best over a mile and a quarter. One of the red flags you must consider when considering a Juvenile winner is whether or not the horse that won it is a frontrunner. If he is, that's trouble because winning at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May wire to wire is one of the most difficult things to accomplish, a feat that requires an amazing amount of stamina that most horses, let alone three-year-olds early in their spring season, just don't have. Street Sense is the only horse in recent memory to win the Juvenile and follow it up with a win in the Derby, and he did it by coming from well behind. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.
What makes it even tougher to figure out now is the introduction of synthetic racing surfaces to the sport. Vale of York won the Juvenile in 2009, but it was on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita Park. Everyone knows that it plays like turf, not dirt, so we really know absolutely nothing about whether or not Vale of York would even take to dirt, let alone have the chops to win the Kentucky Derby. Most Derby winners have shown a liking to dirt prior to arriving at Churchill Downs, so unless Vale of York preps on dirt in 2010, don't take him seriously.