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Which of the following horses would you consider to be the bravest under the following racing scenarios?
A front runner who goes to the lead early and holds off the charge of a fast closer.
25%
A horse that sits off the pace and pushes himself through a small opening between the two leading horses to win.
14%
The thoroughbred that is dead-last and makes the big run around the final turn and wins flying on the outside.
14%
Any one of the three choices above depending upon how the rest of the race sets up helping him to win.
47%
Total votes: 51
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War Pass
War Pass’ recent flop down in Tampa got me thinking about an aspect of handicapping that you won’t find in the game, but you will encounter in real life. What I am referring to is the actual track. Some horses will thrive on some tracks and be absolutely awful on other tracks. What I mean by the track, is the racecourse, i.e. Belmont, Churchill Downs, Saratoga etc. We are still unsure why exactly War Pass an so badly, but a very likely scenario if he was always physically sound is that he did not care for the tract surface. In Horse Racing each track has a different racing surface, I mean its dirt, but the dirt varies in its complexion. The same holds true for Turf courses.
There have been many classic examples of horses flopping (running badly) at a particular track. One that immediately comes to mind is Holy Bull, the decisive favorite for the 1994 Kentucky Derby. On that sloppy Churchill surface Holy Bull ran a very uncharacteristic ninth in the Derby. Churchill is actually a track that disagrees with a lot of horses. It is very hard to tell sometimes if the track is a cause, especially since a lot of trainers always blame the track for a horse’s poor performance. But it is still a part of thar large handicapping puzzle.
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Comments
The thing with War Pass
I'm willing to chalk up his poor performance to him just not liking the track, but even if he shows up at CD and just loves the track, his style of going makes it tough. I mean, it's very rare for a horse to lead wire-to-wire in the Derby. A horse has to have exceedingly rare talent to pull that off. Am I rooting against War Pass? No way! I want him to win very much and pulling for him, but I'd like to see if he can go, say, a mile and an eighth wire-to-wire or come from mid-pack and win at that distance. Then I'd feel a little better about his chances.
I'm very impressed with
Pyro; he's looked very strong in his prep races. I haven't made a definitive pick yet for the Derby. Think I'll hold off until after their final prep races.
Track surfaces.
It could be that War Pass didn't like the surface, but after watching it a few times it looked to me like he just wasn't comfortable after getting outbroken early in the race. Even if he didn't like the surface there is no way to know for sure.
Wood
I guess we will see what happens in the Wood. Although if he doesn't run well there people could also say that he doesn't like the surface.
Interesting
Thanks for the interesting take on War Pass' dud in the Tampa race. I have heard people say that surface is weird, so that could certainly have something to do with it.
I don't think so
I like him, but I don't think War Pass gonna go coast to coast for the jam in the Derby. Gimme Pyro. No Pyro, then a longshot.
Darth Vader is a Nubian GOD!!!
re:comments
I see that I raised quite a discussion. Jury is still out on war Pass, it just made me think of something that shows up alot in handicapping. I think War Pass is the only one who can deffinitively answer our question. And unfortunetly i'm not fluent in Horse and I do not know Mr. Ed
flunkedmath76
I agree Nubian. No way War Pass can win on the lead in the Derby.
Re; War Pass
I agree with you tha tit is unlikely for that scenario to occur. But this is horse racing and I have seen way more shocking things happen.