Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Rachel Alexandra is poised to win the Eclipse Award for 2009 Horse of the Year, even though she has been held out of the Breeders' Cup. Why is it so significant the she should win this award? For starters, consider that since voting for Horse of the Year started way back in 1936, only 6 females have ever won the highest honor that can be given in the world of horseracing: Twilight Tear in 1944, Busher in 1945, Moccasin in 1965, All Along in 1983, Lady's Secret in 1986, and finally Azeri in 2002. When studying the records and accomplishments of all those fine female equines, it's easy to see why they won. First, each of them, with with exception of Azeri in 2002, raced and defeated male horses. Secondly, all of them won their awards in a year that lacked that dominant male horse.
A perfect example of the neccessity of this second factor, at least in a historical sense, in allowing a female Horse of the Year to come to pass is apparent upon an examination of the year 1975. With the exception of her tragic and ultimately lethal breakdown in her match race against Foolish Pleasure, Ruffian was undefeated that year and set many stakes and track records in the process. She won from distances of 6 furlongs all the way to a mile and a half. Impressive, yes. So why didn't she win Horse of the Year? Because Forego was smack dab in the middle of his dominance of the handicap division. He was dominant, not unbeaten, but then again he competed against open, which just happened to be exclusively male, competition. Remember now, just because Forego didn't run against females doesn't mean that any owner/trainer who had mind to run against him didn't have the option to do so. They just didn't. On the other hand, all of Ruffian's wins, impressive though they were, came against restricted competition. In other words, against races only open to female horses. If the trainer of Forego, for instance, wanted to run against Ruffian, he did not have the option of running him in any of the races Ruffian entered. On the other hand, Ruffian's trainer had the option of entering her in any of the races Forego ran in. The bottom line is that Forego achieved his dominance against open competition, Ruffian did not.
Rachel Alexandra in 2009 is the first female horse ever, in my opinion, that would win Horse of the Year even if there was a dominant male. Keep in mind that she is still three-years-old, a true filly, and yet has posted an unbeaten record in 8 races. Among those 8 victories she has made history: she set a record for margin of victory, over 20 lengths, in the Kentucky Oaks, she became the first filly in 70 years to win the Preakness Stakes, destroyed the fillies again by 20 lengths in the Mother Goose, beat a field of three-year-old colts in the Haskell, and then saved her best for last when she became the first female horse in history to win the Woodward, defeating older males in the process!
With a track record like that in 2009, you probably are thinking that she should win Horse of the Year in a landslide, and you would be correct except for one thing: Zenyatta!
Take a look at Zenyatta's 2009 record and you'll see with just a glance that it's not as impressive on the whole as Rachel Alexandra. First of all, she has only raced 4 times. She won them all to run her career record to 13-0, but all 4 of those wins were in races restricted only to females. However, Zenyatta is competing in the arguably the most prestigious open competition race in the world, against 12 top male thoroughbreds, in the Breeders' Cup Classic. No female has ever won the Classic in the 25 year history of the event, so if Zenyatta makes history and wins that race, should she win Horse of the Year over Rachel Alexandra?
I certainly don't think it's a slamdunk, but I think the answer to that question is yes. Why? Rachel Alexandra has defeated males 3 times in the same year, something some of the very best fillies in history never did, with two of them coming against three-year-old males (Preakness and Haskell), and the third coming against older males (the Woodward, a race that the great SECRETARIAT didn't win). However, the fact is that she has not faced competition like Zenyatta is going to face in the Classic, and it also must be pointed out that the Breeders' Cup is the place to be at the end of the racing season, and that Rachel Alexandra is healthy. That's right, she is healthy, and not being held out because of injury, rather because her trainer doesn't like the Pro-Ride synthetic surface at Santa Anita Park. From a Devil's Advocate point of view, one could say that the Breeders' Cup is racing's biggest stage, and Rachel Alexandra is a no-show, while Zenyatta is stepping up to the plate, if you'll allow me to mix metaphors once again. Remember Curlin last year? He clearly didn't like the Pro-Ride, but Asmussen fought the good fight and entered him in the Classic; Curlin lost, but you have to believe that his gritty 4th place effort in that race, a race in which he even took the lead after a mile, swayed the voters to give him his second consecutive Horse of the Year Award. That, along with his unblemished record on dirt (allowing him to become the all-time leading money winner in the process), is probably what did it.
It's a tough call, but I think that if Zenyatta wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, she should win Horse of the Year, with Rachel Alexandra a close second, and Mine That Bird third. If she does win, Rachel Alexandra's absence will most assuredly have people wondering, "What if Rachel Alexandra had not skipped the Breeders' Cup?"
A final interesting question, I think, is: If any horse other than Zenyatta wins the Classic, should any horse other than Rachel Alexandra win Horse of the Year? Mine That Bird, for instance? No way. A Kentucky Derby win and a Breeders' Cup Classic win would not trump the fact that Rachel Alexandra beat Mine That Bird face-to-face in the Preakness, and his other exploits during 2009 would not even come close to the historic nature of Rachel Alexandra's feats.
Only Zenyatta can stand in the way of Rachel Alexandra becoming 2009 Horse of the Year. Either way, you can bet your bottom dollar that 2009 will see the 7th female horse be awarded Horse of the Year.