Horse Racing Fantasy Community

There have been many exceptional tournaments here at HRF for the past two years, but never has there been a fully fledged field from top to bottom with each horse possessing this amount of potential. When you hear those words, it is impossible to think of any other tournament besides the $3000.00 Vacation Giveaway Super Trainer Tournament. This aptly dubbed “super” tournament brings together all 24 of the top Birth Speed Rating (BSR) colts and fillies that were bred in the last six months with their BSR ranging from 138.3 all the way to a 152. Now before I highlight each of the 24 participants, let me just give you a background of how this tournament will take place.
Two qualifying races will take place late on Monday after the new game update has taken place so the new AI jockey intelligence program will be in full effect for these highly anticipated races. The post positions have already been drawn for the two races on Monday and only the top 5 finishers from those 12 horse fields will qualify for the lucrative final which will be run on Derby Day, May 7 shortly after the actual Kentucky Derby has been completed. Now why is this tournament so much more valuable than others? That is because it was free to enter for all the participants, it doesn’t count against the horses’ tournament tally and there is a special prize for the winning horse’s owner. Not only will the winner get over 137k in community points, but will also receive a $3000 Vacation Getaway on HRF’s dollar. The drop-off between the winning payoff and the rest is quite severe, but that just makes the intrigue even greater. One more interesting topic is that all the participants will run as 2yr olds even though some of the runners have already run in the maximum amount of tournaments for a 2yr old. It will be fun to watch, so let’s get right to the action.

http://www.horseracegame.com/community/semi_annual_tour

First we will go race-by-race through the participants, set a morning line which doubles as my projected order of finish for each race, and look at trends to give info for future special tournaments. After the completion of the tournament, we will recap the action and see how I personally did as a handicapper.

G1-Qualifier One
5/2/11 21:00
Churchill Downs
Dirt Fast 8f

http://www.horseracegame.com/community/semi_annual_race/1

1. Master Speed
Owner: starfish (1081-108-104-110)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Safely Kept (Horatius)
BSR: 144.7 (2nd in race, 2nd Overall)
Race Record: 21-10-4-1
Earnings: $2,292,500
Top SF: 142 (9f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: This Dark Brown colt has proven himself at the middle distances on dirt with high SFs and wins over quality competition. In his last tournament, Track Me Now, he took down future shed horses Bd Silver and Probably Late on his way to favoritism in the final. After turning for home with the lead in the Track Me Know Final, he folded late and finished 6 ½ lengths behind eventual winner Probably Late. His poor 2yr old record is due in large part to his failed sprinting campaign where he was unable to finish higher than 5th in four 5-5.5f tries. Looks like a very intriguing win prospect if he can get the right trip along the rail as he will most likely be unable to outsprint all of his competition and is in danger of being caught in traffic.

2. Lady Valentine
Owner: ahijah (9093-1026-1030-1134)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Go For Wand (Deputy Minister)
BSR: 143.6 (3rd in race, 4th Overall)
Race Record: 13-6-2-0
Earnings: $1,450,000
Top SF: 131 (7.5f Turf Soft)
Analysis: This black filly has yet to try dirt, but I for one am not too concerned with the shift. She handled the sand more than fine in her last tournament on her way to her first tournament victory. The distance however is slightly more a concern, as she has finished 6th, 7th, and 2nd in her three starts at the distance. She could find herself on the lead as she ran 21.3, 43.5 in her last tournament, but I doubt she will go that fast at a flat mile. 1000 win trainer also adds to the appeal as there is only one other one in the game (racodo).

3. My Gilmore Girl
Owner: k-n-b-stables (467-42-31-42)
Tiago (Pleasant Tap)-Go For Wand (Deputy Minister)
BSR: 138.4 (10th in race, 22nd Overall)
Race Record: 5-2-0-0
Earnings: $150,000
Top SF: 120 (5f Dirt Good)
Analysis: This Brow filly does not have much racetrack experience, but did do something that some of her more talented opposition didn’t do and that is she won her first tournament. While that was only her second win in the 5 race tournament, she showed competing speed and a closing kick to provide a mild upset at odds of 8-1. That race was not her best SF, but undoubtedly was the breakout race of her career, because she hadn’t shown anything on a fast track or past 5f. Relatively new conditioner hasn’t been on this sort of stage, not sure if overmatched horse can pull the upset against very talented competition.

4. Candy Delite
Owner: valeon (314-56-41-38)
A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew)-Candy Éclair (Northern Jove)
BSR: 140 (8th in race, 15th Overall)
Race Record: 10-2-1-0
Earnings: $460,000
Top SF: 123 (7f Synthetic)
Analysis: With only two wins in ten starts and with finishes of 4th and 9th in his two finals, this golden chestnut colt has little chance to reach the final. He topped out at 116SF on dirt, and he might fall out the back early in a field loaded with early speed. He is supremely inconsistent with 6 of 10 starts resulting in SF under 110. High percentage trainer (18% win, 43% itm) is the only redeeming quality.

5. Sheban Reality
Owner: archon (1150-146-118-116)
Alysheba (Alydar)-Stark Reality (Tom Fool)
BSR: 140.1 (6th in race, 12th Overall)
Race Record: 12-4-3-1
Earnings: $982,500
Top SF: 124 (11f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: This white colt was a solid, but not overwhelming force at middle distances in his first tournament, Leap Year, as he posted a 5-3-2-0 record, but topped out with a 119SF. Renown trainer, archon, then tried the colt at marathons, where he was more inconsistent, but it was also G1 competition. He has been unsuccessful at sprints on off tracks. I believe this is his best distance/surface and a good showing here could point him in the right direction. However, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him make the final. One unique thing is that this horse is currently entered in a tournament that will continue throughout this special one.

6. My Aussie Girl
Owner: modgraphix (3739-697-615-508)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Voodoo Fever (Tom Fool)
BSR: 138.3 (12th in race, 24th Overall)
Race Record: 17-7-2-3
Earnings: $1,825,000
Top SF: 133 (7.5f Sand Fast)
Analysis: Despite being the 24th and lowest BSR in the tournament and only having run on sand, I give this red roan filly from the modgraphix barn quite the chance. The reason being is that sand form transfers well to dirt form, and the horse has excelled at one-turn middle distances. Plus, all the horses are running at 2, and her record at 2 was 11-6-2-1 with a tournament win. She has a nice post, competing speed, and is in excellent hands (18% win). With a good trip, she could easily advance to the final.

7. Inside Images
Owner: ronron900 (703-64-61-59)
Misty Images (Conquistador Cielo)-Inside Information (Private Account)
BSR: 142.3 (4th in race, 5th Overall)
Race Record: 24-12-2-3
Earnings: $1,937,500
Top SF: 141 (9f Dirt Heavy)
Analysis: 9-1-0-1 record at two is very concerning. On dirt fast, his best SF is only a 113 while holding only a 4-0-0-1 record on a fast strip. This palomino colt does embrace middle distances, but the inexperienced trainer and poor record at two and on fast dirt is probably going to be too difficult to overcome. There is a lot of potential in this horse if you look at its BSR, but it seems as if it won’t be taken advantage of until later in career.

8. Rawle I Am Sorry
Owner: ahijah (9093-1026-1030-1134)
Dr. Fager (Rough N Tumble)-Voodoo Fever (Tom Fool)
BSR: 140.5 (5rd in race, 9th Overall)
Race Record: 25-10-5-3
Earnings: $3,150,000
Top SF: 128 (6f Sand)
Analysis: Great Record at two (18-9-5-2) and dirt fast (12-5-4-2) as well as an affinity for middle distances puts this horse in a great position to be a threat to hit the board in the qualifier. The black filly has won enough money to put her in the top 100 and ran into a buzzsaw in her last tournament (Wait a Minute). This filly comes from a top knotch barn and could be very dangerous.

9. Is Wanted
Owner: k-n-b-stables (467-42-31-42)
Tiago (Pleasant Tap)-Go For Wand (Deputy Minister)
BSR: 140.1 (7th in race, 13th Overall)
Race Record: 11-6-0-0
Earnings: $750,000
Top SF: 127 (9.5f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: A full-brother to k-n-b-stables’ other entrant in tournament and they draw into the same qualifier. I see this one as a slightly more viable option in terms of making the final. After a failed attempt of the turf which saw him lose each of the first five races of his career with no finish better than 7th and no SF better than 87, the colt was switched to dirt where he rattled off six wins in a row en route to a tournament win. However, in that tournament he was facing G3 competition and was getting easy leads or nice stalking trips with 22.8, 45.2 speed. If he runs those fractions, he better find a closing kick or he will be unable to make up the distance. I see him as an outsider for an in the money slot and one of the favorites to make the final.

10. Reds Rules
Owner: dreaming (445-69-62-71)
Mdm Mister Pink (Dr. Fager)-Bayakoa (Consultant’s Bid)
BSR: 139 (9th in race, 18th Overall)
Race Record: 17-5-4-2
Earnings: $1,427,500
Top SF: 125 (7.5f Turf Soft)
Analysis: This black colt’s best races came on firm and soft turf, but he will be forced to adapt to fast dirt in order to reap the lucrative awards offered by this tournament. He was able to roll off 6 consecutive SFs 111-123 on sand, but that was sprinting where SFs are inflated. If this race was on turf, he would be a leading win candidate, but the surface hurts his chances significantly. I respect the barn (45% ITM), but there’s not much he can do about preferred surface.

11. Pinks Bay Dawn
Owner: archon (1150-146-118-116)
Mdm Mister Pink (Dr. Fager)-Bayakoa (Consultant’s Bid)
BSR: 152 (1st in race, 1tst Overall)
Race Record: 17-15-1-0
Earnings: $2,420,000
Top SF: 126 (8f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: The only question mark with this stud is how fast can he go. His best SF is lower than multiple others, but I would argue he only goes as fast as he needs to. He is a closer that idles when he gets the lead meaning the white cold will only go half speed as long as he is already guarenteed a victory. His two losses look like aberrations, but Mdm Cheetah Speedo to whom he suffered his first loss would be one of the favorites here too. In his 5th place finish, he was blocked and would’ve won otherwise. The fact that he is a closer, I believe, helps him because he will be able to sit 8th or 9th and make one wide run a la Zenyatta to the win. My Choice.

12. Bright Nickle
Owner: northshorestable (128-33-17-22)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Voodoo Fever (Tom Fool)
BSR: 138.3 (11th in race, 23nd Overall)
Race Record: 20-12-5-1
Earnings: $2,027,500
Top SF: 132 (7.5f Dirt Good)
Analysis: Every race for this dun filly has been on good dirt and she has had significant success with that. The conditioner wouldn’t change that winning formula if this wasn’t a free tournament with wonderful benefits. With 2 tournament wins and a very consistent record, this filly has talent, but will it transfer to fast dirt. For my money, it will not. In my experience, good dirt is just a different animal and if the horse was good on fast dirt, she would’ve run there at least once because of the amount of opportunities. Look for this one to run hard, but if she doesn’t take to the surface it’s tough to embrace her chances.

Morning Line-Qualifier One

1. Master Speed 2-1
2. Lady Valentine 9-2
3. My Gilmore Girl 15-1
4. Candy Delite 25-1
5. Sheban Reality 10-1
6. My Aussie Girl 5-1
7. Inside Images 20-1
8. Rawle I Am Sorry 8-1
9. Is Wanted 6-1
10. Reds Rules 12-1
11. Pinks Bay Dawn 8-5
12. Bright Nickle 12-1

G1-Qualifier Two
5/2/11 22:00
Churchill Downs
Dirt Fast 8f

http://www.horseracegame.com/community/semi_annual_race/2

1. Victory Rising
Owner: tyolds (979-99-141-118)
Man O War (Fair Play)-Affectionately (Swaps)
BSR: 142.2 (2nd in race, 6th Overall)
Race Record: 11-5-1-3
Earnings: $1,500,000
Top SF: 127 (8f Turf Soft)
Analysis: Ran in tournament Flock Here with fellow tournament members Lady Valentine and Reds Rules who finished 2nd and 4th respectively in that tournament final, while Victory Rising finished 3rd. The difference between this dark brown filly and those contenders is that soft turf is all she has run on. While she has done well in her brief career, it would be a bit of a shock to see her so well with such a huge shift in surface.

2. Conquest Coco
Owner: oparada (1889-278-238-220)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Doc Beauty (Dr. Fager)
BSR: 144.5 (1st in race, 3rd Overall)
Race Record: 17-11-2-1
Earnings: $1,912,500
Top SF: 129 (9.5f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: All the question marks we find with other contenders: surface issues, distance issues, bad two yr old form, low SFs, are all not a factor with this one. Although, the dark gray colt does not possess a perfect record, he does have all his races at middle distances on fast dirt with consistent 120s SFs (9 of 17). 10 of 17 races were G1s meaning he has not been facing inferior competition. However, the best stat is that he is 3/3 in finals. He shows up big in big races. He soundly beat Rawle I Am Sorry in his last tournament who I gave a fighting chance in Qualifier One. Logical Contender.

3. Milion
Owner: igor95 (316-45-49-51)
Mdm Mister Pink (Dr. Fager)-Affectionately (Swaps)
BSR: 138.4 (11th in race, 20th Overall)
Race Record: 8-3-2-1
Earnings: $642.500
Top SF: 119 (7.5f Turf Yielding)
Analysis: This black filly has yet to run of fast dirt and has yet to post a 120+ SF. His BSR doesn’t show that he has not reached his full potential, plus he may not be a dirt horse. Distance is fine, but she doesn’t have a knack for winning. Not a big name trainer, no big chance.

4. Dance Intent
Owner: micmac (6699-878-885-839)
Native Dancer (Polynesian)-Affectionately (Swaps)
BSR: 139.6 (8th in race, 16th Overall)
Race Record: 10-2-1-0
Earnings: $455,000
Top SF: 131 (13.5f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: A victory by this dark brown filly would be the equivalent of a Decisive Moment win in the Derby. Just think about it, the horse started her career in a 20k Claimer….and finished fifth. Now, after top trainer micmac claimed her out of that race, she improved dramatically, with two wins in the Long Fun tournament. The only positive is that this horse can run all day, but that is not a necessary attribute in a flat mile race.

5. Kricket Keeper
Owner: bionicdizzle (1141-146-140-152)
Man O War (Fair Play)-Zenyatta (Street Cry)
BSR: 138.4 (12th in race, 21st Overall)
Race Record: 16-3-0-1
Earnings: $777,500
Top SF: 122 (5.5f Sand)
Analysis: This golden chestnut colt has to be sent from the gate in order to have any chance. He is stretching out from 5-5.5f sand/dirt sprints where he has had some success, but still has yet to cash in a tournament. On fast dirt/sand, he has run all 11 races at 110+ SRs. Consistent, but has distance concerns.

6. Unite
Owner: sleepers (5349-538-590-598)
Man O War (Fair Play)-Affectionately (Swaps)
BSR: 140.9 (4th in race, 8th Overall)
Race Record: 5-2-1-0
Earnings: $375,000
Top SF: 125 (11.5f Dirt fast)
Analysis: Well, there are no surface concerns for this fast dirt specialist and the only concern about the distance is that it may be too short. When pressed, will this chestnut filly have enough to keep contact with the leaders. She did win a tournament entitled, It Is The Big One cashing over 1Mill in points all while trouncing fellow Qualifier Two entrant Go Baby Go by over 12 lengths in the final. The concern is consistency. Within that tournament, she ran a 122, 122, 125, but also has poor races with finishes of 7th and 10th where she ran 111, 104. Like her to make it through, not to do much more.

7. Go Baby Go
Owner: nickvegas (2565-296-304-299)
Big Brown (Boundary)-Go For Wand (Deputy Minister)
BSR: 140.5 (5th in race, 10th Overall)
Race Record: 5-2-1-0
Earnings: $662,500
Top SF: 128 (11.5f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: Very similar to Unite in record and concerns. Will she be able to keep up early. She had trouble running sub-24 opening quarter miles. Has more earnings than Unite, but failed to fire in big race of the tournament. I like Unite slightly better, but the two are virtually inseparable.

8. Get There First
Owner: frelance (2474-211-280-266)
Hard Spun (Danzig)-Bayakoa (Consultant’s Bid)
BSR: 140.2 (6th in race, 11th Overall)
Race Record: 25-12-6-2
Earnings: $2,837,500
Top SF: 134 (7.5f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: Undoubtedly, Qualifier Two is weaker, but this bay colt is one of the main contenders. After sprinting during 2yr old season, he ran well (won In The Go Tournament), but really improved as he stretched out. 15 straight 120+ SFs, 17 straight at 115+. A very consistent customer that will not be fading in the stretch. Main Rival to Conquest Coco.

9. Lockness Mate
Owner: sleepers (5349-538-590-598)
Whirlaway (Blenheim II)-It’s In The air (Mr. Prospector)
BSR: 138.4 (10th in race, 19th Overall)
Race Record: 26-6-2-2
Earnings: $1,712,500
Top SF: 123 (6.5f Turf Yielding)
Analysis: A solid 2yr old yr for this black colt (16-6-1-2) turned into a winless 3yr old campaign. However, the positve for the colt is that he will get to revert back to his 2yr old season, literally. The problem is, even with that two yr old form, he really can’t compete with these. His best at two was only a 120 and he was way too inconsistent for my taste (ran an 88 at one pt). Not the worst option, but would be a shock to make final.

10. Canny Fight
Owner: micmac (6699-878-885-839)
Tiago (Pleasant Tap)-Voodoo Fever (Tom Fool)
BSR: 140.9 (3rd in race, 7h Overall)
Race Record: 28-17-4-1
Earnings: $3,675,000
Top SF: 140 (15f Dirt Fast)
Analysis: Any horse that earns a spot on the top 100 list in under 30 starts should be recognized. His 2yr old form is eerily similar to Unite and Go Baby Go, but I believe he face higher quality competition which puts him a knotch above those two, but his lack of middle-distance form causes me to place him just behind Conquest Coco and Get There First. When he’s on, he is tough to beat, but can he have a peak performance as a 2yr old at 8f? Definitely the best chance for champion trainer micmac.

11. Doc Again
Owner: bhdcwt1 (2452-452-390-321)
Awesome Again (Deputy Minister)-Doc Beauty (Dr. Fager)
BSR: 140 (7th in race, 14th Overall)
Race Record: 26-7-1-1
Earnings: $1,550,000
Top SF: 125 (9.5f Dirt fast)
Analysis: The red roan filly has the affinity for middle distance fast dirt races, but is she fast/consistent enough to challenge to top tier of competition. There is also the question of whether or not dirt is her preferred surface. She has had her top two SFs on dirt, but is far more inconsistent on that type of strip. One could also argue that the horse is more of a plodder that clanks on up there after the speed falters. She has a decent chance and might be backed by some, but I personally do not see her with any chance to hit the board, but might clunk on up for a 4th or 5th being that this qualifier is significantly weaker. I do think that this barn is the best in the game (18% win, 47% itm), but the challenge looks too steep.

12. Contingency
Owner: rlparlett (2486-284-307-277)
Conquistador Cielo (Mr. Prospector)-Doc Beauty (Dr. Fager)
BSR: 139.2 (9th in race, 17th Overall)
Race Record: 19-12-1-0
Earnings: $2,562,500
Top SF: 126 (5.5f Sand)
Analysis: This sand specialist of a white filly will be a little out of her comfort zone in a middle distance dirt race, but she was a closer in those sand sprints. I would compare her to Bribon (FR) who had good success as a closing sprinter in the True North, but also won the Metropolitan Mile. Contingency is consistently between 115-126 in terms of SF, 17/19 converting on that. She might need to step it up in that realm in order to contend for win honors, but I could see her hitting the board from the nice outside post that is not a problem because of the long run to the lone bend.

Morning Line-Qualifier Two

1. Victory Rising 12-1
2. Conquest Coco 3-1
3. Milion 20-1
4. Dance Intent 30-1
5. Kricket Keeper 10-1
6. Unite 6-1
7. Go Baby Go 7-1
8. Get There First 7-2
9. Lockness Mate 20-1
10. Canny Fight 9-2
11. Doc Again 8-1
12. Contingency 5-1

My Projected Field For Final

1. Pinks Bay Dawn
2. Conquest Coco
3. Master Speed
4. Get There First
5. Lady Valentine
6. Canny Fight
7. Contingency
8. My Aussie Girl
9. Unite
10. Is Wanted

We will see how I do in terms of picking the winner in each qualifier (for the record I have Pinks Bay Dawn and Conquest Coco), and how many horses I picked to make the final, actually do.

Now let’s break down some of the trends that we see with these horses in terms of breeding

Sires with multiple entrants

Hard Spun-6
Tiago-3
Man O War-3
Mdm Mister Pink-3

Dams with multiple entrants

Go For Wand-4
Voodoo Fever-4
Affectionately-4
Bayakoa-3
Doc Beauty-3

Entrants from Player-Owned Breeding Shed Horses

Voodoo Fever-4
Mdm Mister Pink-3
Doc Beauty-3
Stark Reality-1
Misty Images-1

*21/24 of the horses were bred in either October, December, or February.

We will be back next Monday to recap the tournament