Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Well, my top pick on 7/25 only went 1/10 and I was -$104.60. That brings the totals for the meet to 9/40 and the +/- to -$221.70. Monday was just a chaotic day at Saratoga. The day started out with all races on the turf and all the MTO's getting scratched. Then, after the 2nd race, the heavens opened up and the NYRA officials were forced to take the remaining 4 races off the turf. I tried to call some audibles in the middle of the card as 3 of my top picks were scratched during the surface switch. I thought that my day would turn around when 6-Stormy's Majesty spurted well clear of the field at the 1/8 pole in the sloppy Evan Shipman. It looked like my $40 win bet would get me back for the day, but then this happened.

Yes, the veteran NY Bred 5-Icabad Crane ran down Stormy's Majesty in the final stride (singular) and that was a $100 dollar swing.

Here's a Recap of My Top Picks 7/25/11 (ML) (Final Odds) (Fin)
R1: 7-World Harmony (5-2) (3-2) 2nd
R2: 1-Rogue's Jewel (7-2) (3-1) 1st
R3: 1-Barbados Beauty (2-1) (2-1) 3rd
R4: 8-Ever A Friend (5-1) (5-1) 3rd
R5: 7-Tycoon Cat (5-1) (7-2) 4th
R6: 6-Volcat (5-1) (9-5) 3rd
R7: 5-I Ain't No Saint (10-1) (5-1) 2nd
R8: 6-Stormy's Majesty (5-1) (8-5) 2nd
R9: 5-Lemon Drop On Top (6-1) (3-1) 3rd
Record for Day: 10-1-3-4
Record for Meet: 40-9-7-11 (22% win) (68% itm)

Anyway, I'm going to surprise everyone with a DETAILED preview of the Wednesday Card which includes one of my favorite stakes races, G2-Lake George, featuring a rematch of the top two finishers of the BC Juv Fillies Turf, More Than Real and Winter Memories. Also spinkled into the card are two open maiden baby races and a salty Allowance O/C. Lets get right to it.

Race 1 3+F 9f Dirt Claiming (25k) 30k Purse

The conversation for this 25k Claimer has to begin and end with 5-Celebrity Sighting (3-1) who is has a record of 4-2-2-0 including 2 for 2 when in for a tag. She recieves my "checkmark." In her last race at 7f she almost ran down E Z Passer who is a better horse than these in a 50k Starter Allowance. With that effort, she was rewarded with a 80 Beyer which is the best last out Beyer. 8-A Perfect Squeeze (5-1) gets a positive rider switch to top pilot R. Dominguez, but is stepping up form a N2L claimer and has a life-time best Beyer of 62. 9-Rose's Turn (7-2) won at this level last out, but that was at 6-5 at Monmouth making this a tougher task. To fill out my exacta, I like the 3-Long And Lean (8-1) for 26% conditioner Charlton Baker. There is not much speed in this race and Long And Lean certainly has that. She tired badly behind my top pick, but if she can run back to her race two back, in which she drowned a 20k Claiming field with a 72 Beyer and can settle early with slow fractions, she will hit the board.
The Play: $20 to win on 5-Celebrity Sighting
$1 Trifecta 5/2,3,8,9/1,2,3,7,8,9 = $20
Total for Race: $40

Race 2 3+F 9f Dirt Allowance O/C (50k) 55k Purse

Only a field of five in this Allowance O/C, but all have a ML of less than 5-1 and I believe the ML Fav, 3-Seeking The Title (8-5), is very vulnerable. Not a big fan of conditioner Dallas Stewart who is only 11% this year. Plus this horse is winless since une of 2010. She did run in 9 Graded Stakes last year though and one this year, but those races still don't prove that she will drown this field. In a race similar to this last time out, she ran 2nd beaten almost 2L at Churchill. My choice is a horse that knows how to win 1-Henny's Hurricane (7-2). This Kenneth McPeek trained daughter of Henny Hughes is 5/11 lifetime, including wins in her last two. She is very adaptable to pace setups and can sit off a fast pace or be up close on a crawl. Also worth mentioning is regally bred 5-Protesting (3-1) for Shug McGaughey, who came off an 11mth layoff to run dismally in a race of this level on turf. She only sports a record of 6-0-1-2 in dirt races, but finished 2nd as the favorite in the G2-Demoiselle at today's distance. She can cap exactas.
1-HENNY'S HURRICANE HAS BEEN SCRATCHED
The Play: $10 to win 5-Protesting
$2 ex box 3-5
Total for Race: $14

Race 3 2M 5f Dirt Maiden Special Wt 50k

This race acts as my "free square" as I play a little middle of the card pick three. My top choice should be a lock at less than his even money ML as 3-J C's Pride (EVEN) sports a 89 Beyer in his debut. How did a 2yr old that got an 89 Beyer in his debut lose, you may ask? Overdriven, recent Sanford winner, won the fav's maiden debut with a 100 Beyer. It was 13L later that the third place finisher ended up. Pletcher has a Bluegrass Cat firster 2-Mr. Style (2-1) who could help out our price on top pick.
The Play: $20 to win on 3-J C's Pride
$1 Pick Three Races 3-5 At Saratoga 3/1,3,8,9/3,4,5,6,9 =$20
Total for Race: $40

Race 4 3+F 8f Turf Maiden Claiming (25k) 23k Purse

In the middle leg of my Pick Three, I will have to spread. This is because I am not a fan of ML Fav 1-Hoopskirt (2-1). Her beyers have decreased in each of her last 4 starts, which is a sign of a horse in need of a freshening. Plus, she has already burned the public's money as the favorite 3 times. 9-Patine (8-1) is an interesting player first time out for trainer Bruce Levine, and gets my top pick. Its just that turf may be what this daughter of Smart Strike wants. In her only turf start, she was squeezeda th the break and closed into a slow pace. Meanwhile, 3-Vintage Horizon (9-2) has improved her Beyers in each start and ran well at this surface/distance last out. Solis/Serpe/Flying Zee Stables already teamed up for a huge upset win on opening day. Plus, the addition of blinkers will help. 4-Estero Bay (7-2) comes out of a slow paced turf-route where she was victimized by it. However, she finished more than 5L behind the favorite two back and has tried MdClmers 9 times. Finally 8-Rockport Lover (6-1), is a first time starter for Dutrow and attracts Dominguez who are 33% together in 2011. Turf work was good and is out of a Brazilian mare which signals turf.
The Play: $10 to win on 9-Patine
$2 ex 1,3,9/1,3,4,8,9
Total for race: $34

Race 5 2M 5.5f Turf Maiden Special Wt 50k

Only one horse has run in this Md Sp Wt for two yr olds on turf and that is 6-Sark (5-1) hemade his turf debut in his third career start last out and was the beaten favorite finishing fourth. The top two finishers of that one came back to run in the Chenery Stakes and finished 2nd and 6th, plus the third place finisher came back to break maiden at Arlington with a 62 Beyer. I will use this horse, but have to believe that one of these regally bred firsters will take the money. 3-Doctor Chit (5-2) recieved morning line favoritism, and put in a sub 1:00 5f turf, this one also looks live. However, I have to go with the horse sired by my all-time favorite value sire (based on stud fee). 4-Woods Hole (10-1) is sired by Kitalpha, and if that name doesn't ring a bell, it's not a shock to me. That's because Kitalpha was unraced, what makes him my favorite value sire, is that he is a Full-Brother to champion stallion Kingmambo. Both of their dams' are 2 Time BC Mile Winner Miesque. He is in from Delaware, doesn't have a turf work, and gets Pletcher's 2nd call jock, but I still will make him my top pick. 5-State of Play (6-1) could be live for good owner and jockey/trainer combo.
The Play: $5 to WPS on 4-Woods Hole
Total for race: $15

Race 6 3+F 6f Dirt Maiden Special Wt 40k NY Bred

I believe this NY Bred MSW is for 3 and up, but you wouldn't be able to tell by the number of starts each of these 10 runners have. With 5 first time starters and no horse with more than 5 starts, this race looks like a ragtag of purchases that haven't panned out. My top pick is one of those firsters in 1-Keiko (6-1) for Asmussen and Jockey Julien Leparoux, who have already teamed up to win two races with first time starters, the first of which was with this owner. Worktab is not particularly inspiring, but this was a 240k NY Bred purchase. The next look would go to 7-Special Dancer (5-2) who posted a field best 70 Beyer first out in open company and has posted a sub :48 4f work recently, but trainer is 0-10 this year? And don't sleep on the Pletcher firster 8-Purely Majestic (8-1) who ships i from Delaware.
The Play: $10 to win 1-Keiko
$2 ex box 1-7-9
Total for Race: $22

Race 7 3+F 8.5f Turf Claiming (25k) 30k Purse

2-Starjetta (20-1) will likely be a fraction of that morning line when the race goes off, but still gets my top pick because of her win here last year. That race was a NX1 for NYB in which she recieved a 79 Beyer. Blinkers on and 1st time for a claim on turf is the reason Starjetta gets my top pick over horses like 4-Dopke Gal (5-2) who is in good form and closed exceptionally well off a slow pace in latest at this level. Plus, Dominguez sticks around. I would really be on 6-Australis Princess (5-1), but there seems to be a need the lead type, but with the scratch of Far Isle, she could get clear.
The Play: $5 WPS on 2-Starjetta
$2 ex 2,6/2,4,6
Total for Race: $23

Race 8 3F 8.5f Turf G2-Lake George Stakes 150k

Now the feature which many see as a two horse race between 4-Winter Memories (1-1) and 6-More Than Real (2-1), however, I believe that 5-Bellamy Star (5-1) should be added to the discussion. However, I do not have the guts to pick against the ML favorite Winter Memories who has been favored in all 5 starts and it looks as if that streak will not end here. She was super impressive in winning the Sands Point on this circuit. She dominated in 3 of the 5 starts and loooks like this is the beginning of a special campaign. Bellamy Star is who I like to finish second off her fast win in the overnight Xtra Heat Stakes. Dominguez sticks around after the owner/trainer change and that's a positive for me. Distance shouldnt be a problem and the last two works were spectacular. More Than Real is only 4 weeks removed from her Royal Ascot adventure where she finished 11th of 12 in the Coronation Stakes. I personally wouldn't bet a penny on this one and don't think she's a lock to hit the tri. 2-Sunlight Sonata (10-1) should set the pace and could complete the tri.
Here's one way I could see the race finishing (in virtual form)

The Play: $40 to win 4-Winter Memories
$2 tri 4/5/1,2,3,6 = $8
$1 Pick Three Races 8-10: 4,5/2,5,8,9/1 = $8
Total for Race: $56

Race 9 3+ 5.5f Turf AllowanceNX1 42k NY Bred

For this race I will quickly fly through the reasons why only one of these horses can win in my opinion. 1-Out of Your Mind (12-1), despite being out of the best NYB sire, Freud, is stepping up from a MSW. 2-Power Blast (2-1) has lost as the favorite twice at this level and stalked 2nd perfectly off a slow pace las tout at 5-2 and lost ground through the stretch. 3-City Strut (5-1) is the "sucker" horse in this race. He set slow fractions in a 7f turf sprint to break him maiden last out, so shortening up off a slow wire-to-wire win and stepping up is now a worth only 5-1? 4-Majestic Ruffy (20-1)has top Beyer of 63 and will almost certainly be outrun early (was 5L off a 26 flat quarter in last turf start). 5-One Note Samba (5-2) is only two starts removed from a 97 Beyer, but tries turf for the first time with no turf work, seems like a sort of prayer from Todd. 6-Cole's Got Soul (20-1) is shipping in from a 7th place finish at Finger Lakes, need I say more. 7-First Day (20-1) has tried this level 7 times (all dirt) and hasn't hi the board. Although there has been some buzz about 9-Joey's Chance (15-1), there's no denying that he has worn out his chances at this level. The 1/26 colt has lost 19 straight at this level. That leaves 8-Petey Cramer (4-1) who is stepping up, but led through quick fractions in his 6f MSW and put away City Strut to win by almost 3L. After receiving a 75 Beyer for that effort, he's been off since May 26th, but no worries, he just put in a 46 and 3 work over the turf on the 20th. Easy Money.
The Play: $20 to win 8-Petey Cramer
$2 ex 2,8/2,8,9
Total for Race: $28

Race 10 3+F 6f Dirt Allowance O/C (25k) 45k Purse NYB

This 11 horse nightcap is loaded with stakes runners. In fact, 8 of the 11 runners have tried stakes company at some point and 7 of them have hit the board in a stakes race, and 4 are stakes winners. That would signal a evenly matched field, where you couldn't possibly single a horse in any of you multirace wagers., wrong! 1-Lovely Lil (2-1) has run against NYBs three times and has posted 2 wins by a combined 15L, plus she was 4th in last year's G1 Test. The one time she lost a NYB race was in a 125k Stk last October where she stumbled going around the far turn and still finished 4th. The reason she isn't in stakes company now is because that race in October was her last race. Owner Barry Schwartz, Trainer Mike Hushion, and Jockey Ramon Dominguez (who with Hushion is 32/64 since 2010) just look to clear her N2X condition before going on to bigger and better things. The race for econd behind her will be a crapshoot, so no exactas for this one.
The Play: $20 to win 1-Lovely Lil
Total : $20

Total for Day: $292 (dangerously close to $300 limit)

Recap of 7/27 Top Picks (ML)
R1: 5-Celebrity Sighting (3:1)
R2: 5-Protesting (3:1)
R3: 3-J C's Pride (1:1)
R4: 9-Patine (8:1)
R5: 4-Woods Hole (10:1)
R6: 1-Keiko (6:1)
R7: 2-Starjetta (20:1)
R8: 4-Winter Memories (1:1)
R9: 8-Petey Cramer (4:1)
R10: 1-Lovely Lil (2:1)

MAY THE HORSE BE WITH YOU