Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Saratoga 7/24/11

A quick recap of the first Saturday at Sartoga before I begin my picks for
Sunday. My top choices went 3/11 on the 11 race card and my overall +/- was -$94.00. I did cash on an 11-1 winner in the
fourth race, a 5-2 horse in Race 9, and hit the exacts in both races 3 and 9,
but it wasn't enough to compensate. As for the CCA Oaks, I thought It's Tricky
ran really well to win especially since it looked like she had been put to a
drive at the 3/8 pole, but neither her nor Plum Pretty am I looking forward to
betting back in the Alabama. They both seemed to labor a bit to my eyes deep in
the stretch and there will be an extra furlong to test them in the Alabama. I
like the same horse coming out of that race as I did going in and that is Royal
Delta. It looked like she needed this race as a tightener before the Alabama
which is her connections' ultimate goal. Look for her and the Mosses' Zazu to be
major players in that one on Aug. 21.

Top Picks from Yesterday (ML) (Closing Odds) (Finish)
1-Rockettes Escapade (7-2) (3-1) 9th
7-How Do I Win (5-2)(4-5) 3rd
4-Global Power (7-2) (9-2) 2nd
6-Wishingonastar (6-1) (11-1) 1st
8-Self Control (7-2) (7-5) 4th
7-Code Of Conduct (6-1) (9-2) 4th
4-Captains Cat (8-1) (5-1) 8th
2-Notell (6-1) (5-1) 2nd
4-Jimmy Simms (8-1) (5-2) 1st
4-Royal Delta (2-1) (2-1) 3rd
5-Binks Forest (3-1) (7-2) 1st
Top Pick: 11-3-2-2
For Meet: 11-3-2-2

SAR Picks 7/24/11

Race 1 3+F 8.5f Turf AllowanceNX1 43k NY Bred

This race fields nine entrants in the body of the field and many if not all have
a chance to take the top prize. The two horses that I give top billing are the
4-Lemon Tiger (6-1) and 9-Glory In Motion (5-1) as they both ran well off long
layoffs in their last and should improve in this start. The reason I sided with
9-Glory In Motion as my top choice is because of Trainer Seth Benzel's numbers
with horses 2nd off of layoffs of more than 6mths. He is 5/9 with that move in
2011. Also when paired with todays rider Johnny V, Benzel's horses win 54% of
the time at the Spa. There are a couple of other logical win condensers, but
these are the two that I honk can move forward.
The Play: $10 to win on 9-Glory In Motion
$2 ex box 4-9
$2 Daily Double Races 1-2 3,4,5,6,7,9/(1 if both halfs of entry) (4 if only 1/2 of entry)
Total for Race: $26

Race 2 2M 5.5f Dirt Maiden Special Wt 40k NY Bred

Field of nine NY breds (8 betting interests) lines up for this 2nd old maiden
special weight and I believe there is a clear favorite who should run off with
this one as long as thee are no world beating firsters and that is why I landed
on 1A-The Prize Fighter (2-1) as my top selection as he goes out for Phil Serpe
and Flying Zee Stables. These connections have already teamed up to win one NYB
MSW at SAR so far. The Prize Fighter is the only horse in he field with a race
under his belt and he gets an outside post which should help. I also like that
if there is a great first time starter there is a chance it could be the
1-Cybertron (2-1) who is included in the entry. The one horse that I believe
could mess it all up is the Trombetta firster 4-Dehere of the Cat (7-2) who
attracts the services of top NY rider R. Dominguez. I always loved Discreet Cat
and thought he was supremely talented on the track and would bring that to his
offspring.
The Play: $10 to win 1/1A-Cybertron/The Prize Fighter (only if both parts are in)
If one part of entry is scratched: $10 to win on 4-Dehere of the Cat
$2 ex box 1,4/4,5,7
Total for Race: $18

Race 3 3+ 5.5f Turf Claiming (35k) 29k Purse

It wouldn't be Saratoga without these fun, exciting, complicated, impossible to
handicap turf sprints and the first one of the meet comes 24 races in. This
claiming level attracts a field of 11, and there is a distinct favorite in the
11-Associate (3-1).However, I believe that the post is a killer and it is very
often hat you see wild prices in this type of race. I ended up on a longshot,
the 4-Controversial (12-1) who is among four horses in the field (including he
fav) fresh off their maiden score. He was awarded a 68 Beyer in that race and
that pits him right in the mix at this level with license to improve with only 5
career starts and he has a high percentage turf sprint trainer in "The Giant
Killer" Allen Jerkens. Plus, I think that turf sprinters like doing one thing
and that's turf sprinting. I don't like horses coming from Belmont off 8.5f
races and expecting to turn back and win. 8-D'Oro Dancer (7-2) is the wild card
in this field as this one has been facing better on he left coast but switches
to turf for the first time and hasn't run since October. Trainer switch to Linda
Rice and jockey R. Dominguez means the horse will get bet solely on that combo.
The Play: $10 to win on 4-Controversial
Total for race: $10

Race 4 3+ 6f Dirt Allowance O/C (50k) 54k Purse

The field of 7 with 6 betting interests Linda up of the 6f Optional Claimer with
the chance that the Michael Dubb owners entry goes off odds on. The first half
of the entry 1-My Golden Opinion (2-1) is argued to be the weaker half, but this
one has strung together last three races in lcludin a win 2 back in a N3L with a
92 Beyer. However most of the money coming in on this entry will be directed
Rosas the Anthony Dutrow trained 2nd half of the entry 1A-Happy Bull (2-1),
whose 96 Beyer two back lays over this field. However, I found a newcomer to be
my top choice, 6-Que Posse (4-1) has been on the improve and will likely improve
once again. Rider has a chance to stalk from outside post.
The Play: $10 to win 6-Que Posse
$2 ex 1,6/1,4,5,6
Total for race: $22

Race 5 3+ 6f Dirt Maiden Claiming (20k) 22k Purse

Once again: low-level race at Saratoga are wars. This maiden claimer has
attracted a full field of 14. One horse that I him has a shot at a price is the
5-Lemon Ghost (10-1) for HOF trainer D Wayne Lukas. He drops down from a higher
level maiden claimer at Churchill and Lukas' barn has been ready to fire at some
prices early in the meet. Watch out to the Repole/Pletcher firster by
Speightstown 7-Overrated Toad (12-1) who's been working hard at Delaware.
The Play: $10 to win on 5-Lemon Ghost
$2 ex box 5-7
Total for race: $14

Race 6 3+ 6f Dirt Maiden Claiming (20k) 22k Purse

I really like the 5-WW's Lady's Man (5-1) will be dangerous off the dropdown.
The Play: $10 to win 5-WW's Lady's Man
$2 ex box 1-5-8
Total for race: $22

Race 7 3+F 8f Turf Irish Linnet Stakes 75k NY Bred

Stakes action 2 races before the feature; I love Saratoga. I really like the 9-Chorus Music (5-2) as a trip player here over the prohibitive favorite 3-Gitchee Goomie (2-1). The two met up in the Mt. Vernon Stakes at Belmont recently and Chorus Music was actually favored over Gitchee Goomie, but finished 3rd behing that one. However, It seemed like Chorus Music was stuck on inside for most of the race, while her rival got a clear run on the outside. Watch out for the 1-Exclusive Scheme (12-1) who stole two of the NYB stakes races last year at prices, and 2-Paraiba (5-1) who almost held on in the Mt. Vernon.
The Play: $10 to win on 9-Chorus Music
$2 ex 3,9/1,2,3,9
Total for race: $22

Race 8 3+F 8.5f Turf Maiden Special Wt 51k

I really like a price play in here names 2-Splendid (15-1) for James Jerkens and Gainesway Stable. Has ran at this level/dist/surf in past two races and has run 2nd and 5th. Race two back saw winner come back to win again and third place horse to break maiden next out. Plus, Splendid was rewarded with a 76 Beyer for that one which is the Beyer Par. 1-Enrichment (7-2) may go off favored, but this is first turf, first going long and I normally dont play that move especially on short prices. 3-Virtuously (5-1) for Preakness winning trainer Dale Romans and West Point Syndicate has similar form to Splendid but will be less than half his price.
The Play: $10 to win on 2-Splendid
$2 ex box 1-2-3
Total for race: $22

Race 9 2M 6f Dirt G2-Sanford Stakes 150k
I am not going to talk much about the feature here because there is a horse that should win and by all accounts that I have heard, will win. 6-Overdriven (3-5) is the shortest priced ML fav so far this meet and that I have seen in a while. He broke his maiden with a 100 Beyer which is 22pts higher than his nearest competitor's highest. I'll pound him to win, then put him on top of all exactas.
The Play: $40 to win on 6-Overdriven
$2 ex 6/1,4,5,7,8
$2 ex 7,8/6
Total for race: $54

Race 10 3+F 8.5f Turf Maiden Claiming (25k) 23k Purse

As we near the first post at Saratoga, I near the end of my analysis with this salty nightcap. I like the 2-Frothy Market (7-2) for the lethal combination of Chad Brown and J. Castellano. Best out last Beyer and drops in class. I bet alot on the last race so I'll go light here.
The Play: $10 to win on 2-Frothy Market

Total for Card: $220

Recap of my Top Picks (Odds to one (ML))
9-Glory In Motion (5-1)
4-Dehere of the Cat (7-2)
4-Controversial (12-1)
6-Que Posse (4-1)
5-Lemon Ghost (10-1)
5-W.W's Lady's Man (5-1)
9-Chorus Music (5-2)
2-Splendid (15-1)
6-Overdriven (3-5)
2-Frothy Maker (7-2)

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