Horse Racing Fantasy Community

Sorry guys that I didnt get to post opening day picks, but I did post them on my twitter account which you can find here. http://twitter.com/Michaeldomabyl
The first Saturday at Saratoga is upon us and there is a spectacular 11 race card assembled. Nine of the Eleven races are no claiming races and there of course is a G1 on the card. I will keep track of my winning/losings throughout the meet and limit myself to a $300 daily bankroll. I will also keep track of how my top selections do.
Let's Start with Race 1 and work out way through the card.

Race 1 3+F 8.5f Turf AllowanceNX1 53k

I happen to like the rail horse, 1-Rockettes Escapade (7-2) in this one and will play her based on the angle that she was only beaten a neck at this level last out by a horse named Hungry Island who came back to win the 60k Recording Stakes at Belmont on 7/2. The main challenger is the favorite 9-Deanaallen's Kitten (3-1) who has strung together back to back wins. Her latest triumph was a starter allowance where she made an eye catching 5 wide move to get all the money, but this is a step up in class and I would rather not play short priced horses trying a level for the first time. Watch out for my price horse 2-My Perfect Light (10-1) who posted an 85 Beyer last time on the lawn.
The Play: $5 to win on 1-Rockettes Escapade
$2 Ex 1,9/1,2,5,9,10 = $16
Total for Race = $21

Race 2 2M 5.5f Dirt Maiden Special Wt 50k

In this race I have a bit of an insider's tip. I have heard some chatter that the Pletcher firster 7-How Do I Win (5-2) is very live. I got a similar tip on a horse last year on the Travers undercard, Uncle Mo, and he turned out to prove the chatter right. The last work, despite handily, went in 58 & 4 for the son of Freshman sire Corinthian and both of his last two works have been bullets. Watch the board to see which firsters are live. I also like 4-Mr. Continental (6-1) as a price play because he's a half brother to G1 Juvenile SW Square Eddie.
The Play: $20 to win on 7-How Do I Win (BEST BET OF DAY)
$2 Ex 7/4,5,6
Total for Race = $26

Race 3 3+ 6.5f Dirt AllowanceNX1 52k

My top pick in this race will not be the likely odds-od favorite 1-Saddleranch (7-5) who is what i like to call an "omnifig" where all of his Beyers are better than the best Beyer of ever other horse in the field. I think the 4-Global Power (7-2) is an improving 3yr old who was just in too deep in his last race. Global Power coms in with top connections Chad Brown and Javier Castellano who won 7/23 races together ar last year's meet. He broke his maiden over a promising colt named Bold Warrior who will run back next weekend in either the Curlin or Jim Dandy. He next ran in the G3-Ohio Derby and faltered. I think he can reboun in a more realistic spot.
The Play: $10 to win 4-Global Power
$2 ex box 1-4
Total for race = $14

Race 4 3+ 6f Dirt Claiming (15k) 20k Purse

This race is basically a bottom level claiming event at Saratoga, but man are these races wars. 14 horse field for a 6f sprint is very rare and these races are all about trips. However, I think there are 3 standout horses in this spot; all dropdowns. The first horse, my top pick, 6-Wishingonadream (6-1), was thrown to the wolves after her maiden breaker in a NYS Stakes where he finished 2nd to last, defeated almost 10 lengths back on May 11. He has since got a freshening and her trainer is above average with 61-180 day layoffs. Plus, the top two finishers of that stakes race came back to win again. His maiden win was only a Maiden Claimer 16k, but it was supremely impressive and got a 75 Beyer, if he can improve off that race, he'll contend at a price. 7-Jungle Rain (5-1) broke his maiden back in February with an 82 Beyer in a NYB MSW. Since, he has run at the statebred allowance level 3 times and hasn't elcipsed a figure of 62 or finished better than 5th. The dropdown and his early speed makes him dangerous. Finally, the likely favorite 3-Houston Harbor (3-1) cannot be dismissed. His maiden breaking win at Churchill in a MdClm40k earned a 83 Beyer and he drew off by 4L, lost as fav in StrAlw last out but can be forgiven because of off track.
The Play: $5 to win 6-Wishingonadream
$2 ex box 3-6-7
Total for Race = $17

Race 5 3+ 8.5f Turf Maiden Special Wt 51k

I really like my top pick 8-Self Control (7-2), in this spot, because I believe there is a vulnerable fav, 7-Simbamangu (3-1), the 7 has the best last out Beyer at 89, but it has only come sprinting on dirt. Meanwhile, Slef Control posted a 75 Beyer on the turf at Belmont, depite being in traffinc for much of the stretch. Watch out for 4-Dynafortwo (6-1) with top connections Clement and Leparoux 2nd time out, as well as possible lone speed 3-Ordained (10-1) for Lukas.
The Play: $10 to win on 8-Self Control
$2 ex 4,8/3,4,5,8,9
Total for Race = $26

Race 6 3+ 8.5f Turf AllowanceNX1 53k

11 horse (10 betting interests) line up for this NX1 and this is definately a race to fool around with some prices. The fav(s), 1/1A Capital Market/Liston (7-2), have burned alot of money in their day and have had a combined 15 starts at this level. I have to talk about 4 others in here that I like to upset. 4-Rubber Duck (Ger) (6-1) broke his maiden in a 74,000 Allowance Race and is G3 Placed in Germany. Mott gets him and he is immediately fitted with blinkers. The drawback with him is I would've liked to see him attract a top jock instead of E. Castro. That alone deters me from making him my top pick. 9-Clear Attempt (5-1) is the German shipper's stablemate and it is him who retains Lezcano. Very professional maiden breaker going 1 1/4, but 8.5f is a different animal. Plus, he is trying winners for the first time. He's dangerous and I will be using him; just not on top. 10-Quick Recovery (9-2) has run unbelievably well in his last two starts since switching to turf. After 4 starts on dirt/syn in which he never finished better than 4th or posted a Beyer higher than 69, he came back in a MdClm65k at 8f on turf to win. Then in his first attempt against winners, he almost got up at 14-1, and he's a 1/2 to G3 turf winner Mr. Nightlinger. However, my top pick goes to 7-Code of Conduct (6-1), who I believe will be a bit more of a price than the 10. Won maiden at the dist/surf at Belmont with a superb late run and 81 Beyer, then ran in a 152k Stk at Woodbine next out and lost all chance at the start. Chad Brown is 33% this year with the Syn/Turf move with a $2.61 ROI.
The Play: $10 to win on 7-Code of Conduct
$2 ex 7,10/1,4,7,9,10
Total for Race = $26

Race 7 3+ 6f Dirt Maiden Special Wt 50k

This 3yr old MSW looks very much like a 2yr old MSW with 4 of the 11 runners making their debut and the 11 runners making a total of 14 starts between them. I like the firster 4-Captains Cat (8-1) as my top pick because trainer Chad Brown has two horses in here, including the 3-Crushing (5-1) who figures to take some play, but 1st call rider for Brown, Castellano, opts for the firster instead. I am inclined to lean toward firsters in this one because only two horses have exceeded a Beyer of 70 and both are still way off the Beyer par of 90.
The Play: $10 to win on 4-Captain's Cat
Total for Race = $10

Race 8 3+F 8.5f Turf Maiden Special Wt 41k NY Bred

Like I said, lower level races at Saratoga are wars. This NYB MSW is a 12 horse field with two AEs, but I have a horse that I like very much in this one. 2-Notell (6-1) is 2nd off a long layoff for trainer Jonathon Sheppard who is known for his turf horses. His two MSW races at Saratoga were both very good with an eventful first race where he finished 8th beaten less than 2L with some traffic. He came back and was fitted with blinkers and promptly ran off in a speed duel that left him 5th. His 6f race at Belmont looked like a prep for this and he made a good late fun in that one to be 4th.
The Play: $20 to win 2-Notell
Small Late $0.50 P4 Play Races 8-11: 2/1,3,4,5,8/4/1,5,7,8,11,12 = $15
Total for Race = $35

Race 9 3+ 8.5f Turf Allowance O/C (50k) 55k Purse

I have yet another price play for you guys in the 9th race or as I like to call it, the race of the misfits. You have 4 horses coming off layoffs of 6mths or more including part of the entry 1/1A Seaside Retreat/Kings Command (7-2) who is coming off a layoff of THREE YEARS. Infact, Seaside Retreat raced in Barbaro's Derby, Go Between's VA Derby, and won his own G2 in the 2008 Nijinsky at Woodbine. My top pick happens to be one of those four horses coming off a 6+mth layoff, but he's only been off since Jan of this year. 4-Jimmy Simms (8-1) is 6/16 lifetime and has last three Beyers of 89, 91, 88 which makes him extremely competitve in this. He is now in the hands of Tony Dutrow who is 38% 1st w/ Trainer and 36% off 180+ day layoffs in 2011. Really every horse in this one has a shot (and I went 5 deep in the P4), so I limit my talk just to my top choice.
The Play: $10 to win on 4-Jimmy Simms
$2 ex 4/1,3,5,6,7,8 =$12
Total for Race = $22

Race 10 3F 9f Dirt G1-CCA Oaks 250k

The downside of the this 1st G1 of the Saratoga meet is they only attracted five. However, part of the reason for that is the upside, the 5 horses just scared everyone else off. These horses have wins in the Kentucky Oaks, Black Eyed Susan, Mother Goose, Acorn, Fantasy, Honeybee. The only one that has two Graded Stakes wins in 3-Joyful Victory (6-1), the longesat shot on the board and beaten fav in KY Oaks and Mother Goose. I personally don't like her chances at all as her Beyers just don't stack up (top is a 90) and she is always overbet. 5-It's Tricky (3-1) has the field best beyer with a 104 in the G1-Acorn on the Belmont undercard, but that was in the mud, and I don't trust that fig. However, the 2nd place horse in that race is G1/multiple Graded Stakes horse Turbulent Descent and 3rd place finisher Her Smile came back to win the G1-Prioress for celebrity chef Bobby Flay. I feel "last time was the time" for this horse as you'll get a 1/3 of the 10-1 price she was last time. 2-Plum Pretty (3-1) decided to run in the Hollywood Oaks instead of shipping to NY for the Mother Goose. She failed to win at 7-10 at her home track, but she might be better on dirt. She won by 25L in a stakes race at Sunland and won the KY Oaks (a race where the 2nd and 3rd place finishers won Graded Stakes), so she cannot be dismissed completely. 1-Buster's Ready (7-2) really broke out last time with a 4L win in the G1-Mother Goose, but she actually regressed Beyerwise going from a 96 to a 94. I really question the strength of the Mother Goose field and she was drowned by my top pick 4-Royal Delta (2-1) in the Black-Eyed Susan. Royal Delta has impeccable breeding (Empire Maker out of A.P. Indy mare). She is 3/4 with her only loss coming at the quirky track of Tampa Bay. In her 3 wins she got Beyers of 87, 90, 100 and she still might be on the rise. She missed the Mother Goose because of a foot bruise and that cold cause her price to inflate. A really good work on 7/10 and a 28% Jockey/Trainer Combo solidifies my selection.
The Play: $40 to win on 4-Royal Delta
Total for Race: $40

Race 11 3+ 8.5f Turf Maiden Claiming (25k) 23k Purse

Oh is this getaway race a head scratcher or what. 12 in the main body with 2 AEs. Let's start off by talking about a horse I am very much against, but you cannot talk about this race without talking about this horse, 1-Last Out Of Panama (4-1) debuted in a VA Bred Stakes race at Colonial and finished 4th beaten less than 4L and was placed 2nd through DQ. Sounds like a very good horse horse who will drown this Md Claiming field, but the fact is that stakes race was in Jly 2010. He has Pletcher/Velazquez but the fact that he's in for a quarter with no try at MSW is concerning. 5-Binks Forest (3-1) is the horse to beat. The son of Street Cry debuted at a mile on turf at Tampa Bay and was only beaten a neck by a next out winner with a 65 Beyer, that alone might drown this field. He came back in a high class off the turf MSW at Belmont and was soundly beaten. Not necessarily top connections Phipps/Lenclud who I don't want a short price on. I landed on a firster by Birdstone named 7-Master John (12-1) . Last work was a good one, Lezcano 3/7 in 2011 for J Jerkens and a top class owner in Gainesway. I know I'm taking a shot here, but this is the nightcap and a Maiden Claimer.
The Play: $5 to win on 7-Master John
$2 ex 5/1,2,7,8,11,12
Total For Race = $17

Total For Day = $254

Recap of Top Picks
R1: 1-Rockettes Escapade (7-2)
R2: 7-How Do I Win (5-2)
R3: 4-Global Power (7-2)
R4: 6-Wishingonastar (6-1)
R5: 8-Self Control (7-2)
R6: 7-Code Of Conduct (6-1)
R7: 4-Captains Cat (8-1)
R8: 2-Notell (6-1)
R9: 4-Jimmy Simms (8-1)
R10: 4-Royal Delta (2-1)
R11: 7-Master John (12-1)

I will be back tomorrow to recap and make picks for Sunday.
If anyone want to comment and make own picks/comment on mine, that would be cool.