Horse Racing Fantasy Community

If a jockey in real life said his 20:1 shot had a great chance of winning, would you bet that horse? If a trainer saddling a 10:1 shot told you he felt his horse would improve dramatically in today's race, would you bet that horse? I guess the answers to these questions are tied to how well you know the jockey or trainer and how confident you are in their opinion about their horse. Horse racing is a tough game, but what I can tell you is that inside your past performance lines that are built each time you run a race, there is gold. I've read a lot in the forums lately from a lot of respectable players that they don't necessarily trust the past performance lines or say they're too inconsistent. In the real world of racing, favorites win only 32% of the time. In our game, the win percentage is about the same. The past performance information can be your best friend or your worst enemy, depending upon how you evaluate it. I personally need that historic data to evaluate each horse and their potential for winning. The more data I have, the clearer the picture becomes. Below are some key bullet points to remember when playing our game that might help the past performance lines give you a better indication of a horse's ability. The question is, think of me as that trainer or jockey, and you'll have to make your choice as to whether you trust my opinion.

1. Each horse has his own consistency factor. So, if you have 30 races on a horse (or 30 PP lines), review them at a glance and see in how many of those races the horse was a total dud. Only count the races that fit the horse overall. In other words, if the horse is a sprinter, throw out the distance races. Let's say you're left with 10 races that fit the horse's condition and in those 10 races, the horse performs well 7 times. You can come up with a rough estimate that under the right scenario, this horse will fire bullets or race effectively 70% of the time when the racing conditions make sense.

2. Trip Factor - Each horse is programmed to a certain type of running style, or a style that is his preferred way of going. If a horse is a front runner and he's sitting in the 2 hole or the pocket trip and he doesn't win, that is an indication that this horse has been programmed to be most effective in a particular running style. In other words, if he doesn't get the front, he's not a winner. That particular trait in this horse may be accurately revealed 80% of the time (or some percentage number that you have to figure out after many races).

3. The Age Factor - I watch a lot of our players make the same mistake over and over again. The age factor is crucial. Every horse in our game is programmed with a peak age and the years around that age also have some rating or effective factor that's equivalent to some percentage of that peak age. For example, Thoroughbred A may have a peak age of 3 years and 5 months. During the months leading up to that peak age, he may be 90% capable of his maximum ability. During the months that follow that peak age, he may be 80% capable, or it can be vice-versa. Though horses may have similar peak ages, it's their effectiveness leading up to that peak age and their effectiveness when crossing that peak age that differs in all horses in our game. The other factor to consider in our game, at least when considering age as a handicapping factor, is that horses may have preferred effective distances at different ages. A horse that might be a great mile to a mile-and-a-quarter distance horse at 3, may be a more effective sprinter at 4.

4. Surface Changes - This is very interesting. We have programmed the game where a surface change can affect the horse in a positive way his first start when switching racing surfaces or maybe his second or third start. Just like in real racing, changing surfaces may take a horse some time to get used to. Sometimes switching surfaces is a negative and the longer you stay at the switched surface, the more negative the performance of the horse gets. And, if you switch back to his preferred racing surface, it may take several races for that horse to get back into the top racing form he was in before.

In summary, there are literally over a thousand factors considered when building each horse. That is all part of the unique quality and to make sure the attributes of each thoroughbred come through. The past performance lines do hold the answers for each horse. It's just like a puzzle. That's why we consider our game a true game of skill. Looking and translating the pieces of that puzzle takes time and effort and a lot of history on each horse to truly find a horse's best racing conditions. Keep in mind, even when you do have the horse figured out, that there is a percentage of those perfect scenario races where the horse will throw in a bomb or a dud. That's why, just like in real racing, you'll get those horses that light up the board at 50:1.

Anyone who has any questions on handicapping, please don't be afraid to ask me. Good luck, and I hope everyone makes it to the winner's circle.

- FantasyHandicapper