Saturday's 138th Kentucky Derby features a full field of 20. Bodemeister's big 9 1/2 length win in the Arkansas Derby will give him likely favoritism over Union Rags who finished runner up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. Union Rags came back and won the G2 Fountain of Youth easily, and then finished a disappointing but solid third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Union Rags is always right there at the finish and looks like a solid contender. Take Charge Indy won the Florida Derby wire to wire last out but he will have company from Wood winner Gemologist, and Hansen, last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and who most recently finished second as the favorite in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. There is some question whether Hansen is a miler, but he has heart as he has never finished worse than second in six career starts. The likely pacesetter, however, may be Trinniberg, who will be a huge longshot here but is actually a very classy horse, having won two consecutive Grade 3 sprints at 7 furlongs, the Swale and then the Bay Shore.
He might hang around longer than people think. Went the Day Well is the Spiral Stakes winner but has not shown a truly solid race on natural dirt yet. El Padrino is a hard knocking horse who could be heard from late - he won the Grade 2 Risen Star back in February, and finished fourth in the Florida Derby, but gaining ground at the end. I'll Have Another has two consecutive wins having taken the RB Lewis Stakes and most recently the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, in which he held off Creative Cause to win by a nose. Creative Cause has finished in the money in all eight of his career starts. He could do it, but if he doesn't he has a great chance to fill out the bottom part of the exotics. Daddy Long Legs took the UAE Derby and has won 3 out of 5 starts. Dullahan ran down Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes to win going away. That was on the polytrack, so he hasn't proven his class over dirt yet. He did finish a respectable 4th in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, finishing behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. Daddy Nose Best is hard to read because he hasn't faced anyone in this field recently. He took the Grade 3 Sunland Derby with one of the best last race speed figures, finished well, and looks to be on the improve. Alpha won the Grade 3 Withers and most recently almost ran down Gemologist in the Wood, losing that race by a neck. Prospective, Done Talking, Liason, Rousing Sermon, Optimizer, and Sabercat round out the field.
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Have fun with the 2012 Kentucky Derby, at Churchill Downs, VIPs! We're certain you will enjoy running this one.